Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2678 GP	H238 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3130 GP · 2y
TOI	15.59	15.93	16.43	14.18	13.23
PP TOI	1.15	0.96	1.16	0.78	0.91
G	▲34	30	36	26	22
A	19	18	15	20	14
PTS	▲53	48	50	46	37
PPP	7	6	6	6	4
SOG	▲254	192	222	164	181
PIM	36	34	9	58	50
Hits	182	174	180	167	160
Blocks	29	28	26	31	26

Sample: 78 GP · 1,101 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

27Alex Ovechkin78

28Will Cuylle72

29Drake Batherson72

30Bobby McMann71

31Evgeni Malkin70

32Quinton Byfield68

33Rickard Rakell67

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline is his 2025-26 (SEA/TOR) season. Value hinges on holding top-line minutes; currently a strong streamer with real shot volume.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 58 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 26 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

SOG

all5v5

We’re projecting shots 32% above last season, 192 to 254.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 38% above his 3-year rate last season (0.54 against 0.39).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Anders LeeLW · Utah Mammoth81% match
shared: Hits, SOG, G
Jonathan MarchessaultRW · Nashville Predators81% match
shared: SOG, Hits, G
Chris KreiderLW · Anaheim Ducks79% match
shared: Hits, G
Porter MartoneRW · Philadelphia Flyers78% match
shared: Hits, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Bobby McMann is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year (TOR, traded): Lane Lambert SEA · pre-trade → Craig Berube TOR · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.59	15.93	13.23	+20%
5v5 TOI	14.42	14.13	11.85	+19%
PP TOI	1.15	0.96	0.91	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.59: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.42: same coach (Lane Lambert) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.1, Q4 15.3) over the full-year 14.1
PP TOI → 1.15: same coach (Lane Lambert) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.2, Q4 1.5) over the full-year 1.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.44	8.28	10.01	-17%
G/60	0.97	0.98	1.09	-10%
iSH%	11.48	11.84	10.90	+9%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.79	+1%
iCF/60	–	15.52	17.06	-9%
iSCF/60	–	7.68	7.56	+2%
iHDCF/60	–	3.10	3.31	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost SOG/G if he holds top-line minutes; currently a strong streamer. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.8% sits near the 10.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 8.28 vs 10.01) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.05	10.03	10.10	-1%
IPP	66.04	67.42	62.46	+8%
1A/60	0.48	0.54	0.39	+38%
2A/60	0.32	0.27	0.39	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.0%, IPP 67.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.15	0.96	0.91	+6%
PP iSH%	24.97	26.63	24.97	+7%
PP SOG/60	11.28	11.98	8.15	+47%
PP ixG/60	–	1.92	1.36	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.0→1.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Lane Lambert) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.2, Q4 1.5) over the full-year 1.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.92 vs 1.36) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.56	1.74	2.61	-33%
Hits/60	8.94	8.77	9.66	-9%
Blks/60	1.32	1.36	1.60	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 6.32/60 and 2nd-half 8.39 below the 8.77 season rate — projected DOWN to 8.94/60, weighting the recent decline over the 9.66 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.87/60 and 2nd-half 1.14 below the 1.36 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.32/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.60 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.11/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.