Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	15.48	15.64	14.45	14.66	16.62
PP TOI	1.79	1.76	1.77	1.74	2.42
G	20	19	17	21	26
A	22	23	16	29	21
PTS	42	42	34	50	47
PPP	7	8	6	10	9
SOG	192	201	195	207	212
PIM	49	44	39	49	51
Hits	108	91	118	65	141
Blocks	40	37	32	42	48

Sample: 82 GP · 1,047 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

67Matvei Michkov34

68Dmitri Voronkov33

69Zach Benson33

70Anders Lee32

71Carter Verhaeghe31

72Gavin McKenna31

73Jonathan Huberdeau31

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 104% above his 3-year rate last season (0.74 against 0.36).

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 118 pace in the second half after 65 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 42% below his 3-year rate last season (6.40 against 11.12).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wild85% match
shared: Hits, SOG, PIM, G
Timo MeierLW,RW · New Jersey Devils85% match
shared: G, Hits, SOG, Blocks
Adam FantilliC · Columbus Blue Jackets84% match
shared: Hits, SOG, Blocks
Shane PintoC · Ottawa Senators82% match
shared: Hits, G, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Anders Lee is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year (NYI, traded): Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.48	15.64	16.62	-6%
5v5 TOI	12.64	12.77	13.52	-6%
PP TOI	1.79	1.76	2.42	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.48: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.64: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.79: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.89	8.13	8.80	-8%
G/60	0.65	0.52	0.98	-47%
iSH%	8.19	6.40	11.12	-42%
ixG/60	–	1.49	1.25	+19%
iCF/60	–	16.44	15.02	+9%
iSCF/60	–	11.34	11.01	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	7.22	6.67	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.4% vs 11.1% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 1.49 (100th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 8.2%, lifting the goal rate ~24%.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.45	9.54	8.99	+6%
IPP	59.32	59.07	60.56	-2%
1A/60	0.61	0.74	0.36	+104%
2A/60	0.45	0.40	0.47	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.5%, IPP 59.1%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.44 vs 15.02) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.79	1.76	2.42	-27%
PP iSH%	13.77	14.68	13.12	+12%
PP SOG/60	12.84	14.17	12.35	+15%
PP ixG/60	–	3.10	2.99	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.8 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.30	2.00	2.25	-11%
Hits/60	6.07	5.10	7.17	-29%
Blks/60	2.08	1.95	2.28	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 6.97/60 and 2nd-half 6.77 vs a 5.10 season rate (7.17 3-yr) (61st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.07/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.95/60 (31st pct league-wide) → 2.08 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.17/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.