Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H238 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	17.64	17.61	16.61	16.79	17.77
PP TOI	1.60	2.69	2.43	2.93	2.65
G	25	27	27	26	33
A	30	32	27	37	35
PTS	55	59	54	63	68
PPP	9	12	13	11	17
SOG	206	199	198	200	263
PIM	33	34	39	30	44
Hits	69	72	58	86	64
Blocks	23	23	22	25	24

Sample: 77 GP · 1,074 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

68Dmitri Voronkov33

69Zach Benson33

70Anders Lee32

71Carter Verhaeghe31

72Gavin McKenna31

73Jonathan Huberdeau31

74Josh Doan30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Stays on a scoring line with M. Tkachuk, so 5v5 holds; only the PP role drops. No PK utility floor. PP demotion bet placed on the minutes, not a blind PPP multiplier.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 40% below last season, 2.69 to 1.60.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 58% below where it started (1.01 in the first half, 0.42 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 58 pace in the second half after 86 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 25% below last season, 12 to 9.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jonathan MarchessaultRW · Nashville Predators91% match
shared: SOG, G
Nazem KadriC · Colorado Avalanche86% match
shared: SOG, G
Porter MartoneRW · Philadelphia Flyers86% match
shared: G
Zach HymanRW · Edmonton Oilers84% match
shared: SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Carter Verhaeghe is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.64	17.61	17.77	-1%
5v5 TOI	14.10	13.96	14.00	-0%
PP TOI	1.60	2.69	2.65	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.64: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.10: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.60: banished to PP2 behind the top unit (2.69 -> ~1.6 PP TOI); PPP and the PP slice of G/A fall out of the reduced minutes

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.15	7.15	9.94	-28%
G/60	0.84	0.89	1.12	-20%
iSH%	11.73	12.45	11.22	+11%
ixG/60	–	0.80	1.04	-23%
iCF/60	–	15.35	18.41	-17%
iSCF/60	–	8.43	10.57	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	3.41	4.54	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 12.4% sits near the 11.2% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 28% (5v5 SOG/60 7.15 vs 9.94) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.32	9.64	8.77	+10%
IPP	71.99	73.10	70.04	+4%
1A/60	0.68	0.73	0.61	+20%
2A/60	0.46	0.50	0.50	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.6%, IPP 73.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.60	2.69	2.65	+1%
PP iSH%	12.44	11.31	13.26	-15%
PP SOG/60	15.12	15.38	14.36	+7%
PP ixG/60	–	2.01	1.84	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskTrim PPP to a PP2 rate; no special-teams floor offset.

RiskPP role projected down: 2.7→1.6 PP TOI/gp (banished to PP2 behind the top unit (2.69 -> ~1.6 PP TOI); PPP and the PP slice of G/A fall out of the reduced minutes) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.40	1.56	1.87	-17%
Hits/60	3.26	3.41	3.13	+9%
Blks/60	1.11	1.17	1.06	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.32/60 and 2nd-half 2.79 below the 3.41 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.26/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.13 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.83/60 and 2nd-half 1.07 below the 1.17 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.11/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.06 3-yr mark.