Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2663 GP	H223 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3148 GP · 2y
TOI	14.11	13.94	11.02	15.28	15.10
PP TOI	1.85	2.01	0.97	2.66	2.04
G	21	22	13	28	23
A	20	19	12	24	22
PTS	41	42	25	52	45
PPP	10	12	8	14	11
SOG	141	142	117	162	164
PIM	61	77	47	96	59
Hits	129	137	157	126	85
Blocks	46	35	51	27	53

Sample: 63 GP · 729 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

58Anton Lundell38

59Frank Nazar35

60Mikael Granlund34

61Dmitri Voronkov33

62Shane Pinto32

63Matt Duchene29

64Elias Lindholm27

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). Bump, MINUTES ONLY - deliberately no rate multiplier. His PPP of 9 on 1.57 PP TOI implies a 4.19 PP p/60 against his actual 4.25, so the engine's PP RATE is already honest; only the minutes were wrong. Adding a G mult here would be the double-fade gotcha in reverse (stacking a manual boost on a rate the engine got right). The rate is also the most stable thing on this roster: PP p/60 3.23 / 4.30 / 4.25 across three years on a 3.13 ixG/60, so his 25.9% PP shooting is chance-supported, not luck, and his all-strength g/60 is rising 1.07 -> 1.13 -> 1.16. Lands ~42-43, between Blake (40.5) and the outside 47.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 136% above where it started (1.56 in the first half, 3.70 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 64% below where it started (2.67 in the first half, 0.97 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 76% above his 3-year rate last season (8.47 against 4.81).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brayden SchennC,LW · New York Islanders88% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings88% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Mason McTavishC · St. Louis Blues87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Gabriel LandeskogLW · Colorado Avalanche86% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dmitri Voronkov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.11	13.94	15.10	-8%
5v5 TOI	11.08	11.58	12.57	-8%
PP TOI	1.85	2.01	2.04	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 2

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.11: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.08: role tapered late (Q4 10.0 vs 11.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.85: NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). MODEL-BLIND CASE: the engine projected 1.57 PP TOI against a 2.01 full-season actual because the H2 anchor read a Q3 dip (0.97) and then NO Q4 ROW AT ALL - he missed nearly all of the final quarter with a hand injury. The deployment anchor is reading an injury as a demotion. Hedged 60/40 between the engine's 1.57 and his true 2.01 rather than restoring him fully, because the Q3 dip happened across 21 PLAYED games and so some of it is genuine doghouse.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.25	6.25	7.09	-12%
G/60	0.72	0.74	0.81	-8%
iSH%	11.56	11.84	11.35	+4%
ixG/60	–	0.92	1.02	-10%
iCF/60	–	11.59	12.32	-6%
iSCF/60	–	7.32	7.64	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	4.36	4.81	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 2

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextKeep upside conditional on an ice-time increase; deployment risk under Bowness. · Fantasy hockey forward analysis

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.8% sits near the 11.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.92 (88th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 6.25 vs 7.09) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.93	9.52	10.60	-10%
IPP	60.32	62.85	56.26	+12%
1A/60	0.70	0.74	0.64	+15%
2A/60	0.40	0.33	0.42	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 2

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.5%, IPP 62.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.85	2.01	2.04	-1%
PP iSH%	23.98	25.94	22.56	+15%
PP SOG/60	12.79	12.76	12.32	+4%
PP ixG/60	–	3.13	2.87	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 2

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.0→1.9 PP TOI/gp (NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). MODEL-BLIND CASE: the engine projected 1.57 PP TOI against a 2.01 full-season actual because the H2 anchor read a Q3 dip (0.97) and then NO Q4 ROW AT ALL - he missed nearly all of the final quarter with a hand injury. The deployment anchor is reading an injury as a demotion. Hedged 60/40 between the engine's 1.57 and his true 2.01 rather than restoring him fully, because the Q3 dip happened across 21 PLAYED games and so some of it is genuine doghouse.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.70	4.11	3.26	+26%
Hits/60	8.89	8.47	4.81	+76%
Blks/60	3.00	2.22	3.00	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 2

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 11.38/60 and 2nd-half 11.38 vs a 8.47 season rate (4.81 3-yr) (81st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 8.89/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.70/60 and 2nd-half 3.70 vs a 2.22 season rate (3.00 3-yr) (39th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.00/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.16/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.