Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2669 GP	H237 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3237 GP · 3y
TOI	18.06	17.88	17.04	16.38	18.78
PP TOI	2.74	2.76	2.63	2.91	2.91
G	18	20	20	20	19
A	31	37	30	44	35
PTS	49	57	51	65	54
PPP	16	24	13	36	16
SOG	148	135	132	139	177
PIM	27	45	32	60	18
Hits	55	49	29	71	103
Blocks	70	70	67	74	65

Sample: 69 GP · 897 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

61Dmitri Voronkov33

62Shane Pinto32

63Matt Duchene29

64Elias Lindholm27

65Mason McTavish27

66Charlie Coyle26

67Max Domi25

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (4.52 in the first half, 14.16 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 134% above where it started (0.40 in the first half, 0.93 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mikael GranlundC,RW · Anaheim Ducks90% match
shared: Blocks, PPP, A
William EklundLW,RW · Ottawa Senators88% match
shared: Blocks, A
Josh NorrisC · Buffalo Sabres84% match
shared: Blocks, A
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames84% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Elias Lindholm is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM
Sam BennettC · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.06	17.88	18.78	-5%
5v5 TOI	13.09	13.01	12.66	+3%
PP TOI	2.74	2.76	2.91	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 18 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.06: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.09: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.74: established top role held near 2.8 — the late dip (Q4 2.3) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.01	5.01	6.28	-20%
G/60	0.49	0.53	0.54	-1%
iSH%	9.81	10.58	8.56	+24%
ixG/60	–	0.69	0.69	-0%
iCF/60	–	11.63	12.16	-4%
iSCF/60	–	6.68	6.52	+2%
iHDCF/60	–	3.34	3.10	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 18 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.6% vs a 8.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.69 (59th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.8% pulls the goal rate ~7% down.

RiskShot volume down 20% (5v5 SOG/60 5.01 vs 6.28) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.40→0.93 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.97	10.80	9.31	+16%
IPP	55.80	52.43	60.55	-13%
1A/60	0.44	0.40	0.58	-31%
2A/60	0.48	0.47	0.54	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 18 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.8%, IPP 52.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.74	2.76	2.91	-5%
PP iSH%	17.05	21.90	13.54	+62%
PP SOG/60	10.16	10.09	11.57	-13%
PP ixG/60	–	2.53	2.36	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 18 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.7 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (21.9% vs 13.5% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.53) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.03	1.47	0.66	+123%
Hits/60	2.44	2.21	4.84	-54%
Blks/60	2.99	3.07	2.98	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 18 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.19/60 and 2nd-half 1.21 below the 2.21 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.44/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.84 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.62/60 and 2nd-half 2.77 below the 3.07 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.99/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.98 3-yr mark.