Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2676 GP	H236 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3208 GP · 3y
TOI	17.40	18.49	17.47	17.25	17.16
PP TOI	2.25	3.26	3.26	3.25	2.16
G	24	28	31	26	24
A	29	35	29	39	28
PTS	53	63	60	65	52
PPP	▲13	15	14	16	13
SOG	222	218	229	208	238
PIM	89	88	100	78	96
Hits	107	124	74	170	184
Blocks	45	35	35	34	47

Sample: 76 GP · 1,004 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

23Sidney Crosby84

24Leo Carlsson82

25Bo Horvat82

26Sam Bennett81

27Joel Eriksson Ek81

28Steven Stamkos81

29Dylan Cozens80

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Faded on the power play, harder than the first pass. Barkov's return plus Brady Tkachuk's arrival fills both spots Bennett might have claimed, and his 3.20 PP minutes were earned across a season Barkov missed from start to finish. Minutes go to 2.25, a clean second-unit share, with headline ice time to 17.4. The PP rate lift softens from 1.29 to 1.15 in the same move, because it was written against PP1-level deployment and would otherwise pay him for a job he no longer has. This lands him under the outside read, which applies the same demotion and still projects 60 per 82. That gap is the live risk on him.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindBoost top-line stars' TOI-driven baseline; discount depth-center scoring. · Fantasy coaching primer

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 100% above where it started (7.60 in the first half, 15.18 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 74 pace in the second half after 170 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 51% above his 3-year rate last season (3.26 against 2.16).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 59% above his 3-year rate last season (13.20 against 8.31).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adrian KempeRW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: SOG, PIM, Hits, G
Joel Eriksson EkC · Minnesota Wild83% match
shared: SOG, Hits, G, PIM
Travis KonecnyRW · Philadelphia Flyers82% match
shared: PIM, SOG, G, Hits
Dylan CozensC · Ottawa Senators82% match
shared: Hits, PIM, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sam Bennett is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Matt DucheneC,RW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Nick SuzukiC · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.40	18.49	17.16	+8%
5v5 TOI	13.25	13.21	13.35	-1%
PP TOI	2.25	3.26	2.16	+51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.40: Headline ice time follows the power-play cut: 14.3 at even strength, 2.25 on the power play, 0.84 on the penalty kill.
5v5 TOI → 13.25: Tracks the even-strength trim so the shown 5v5 line agrees with the production it drives.
PP TOI → 2.25: A clean second-unit share, deepening the earlier trim. Barkov is back and Brady Tkachuk arrives, so the 2 spots Bennett could have claimed are both spoken for. His 3.20 was earned across a season Barkov missed from start to finish. 2.25 is what Florida's second unit actually pays.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.18	8.18	9.36	-13%
G/60	0.93	1.08	0.78	+39%
iSH%	11.35	13.20	8.31	+59%
ixG/60	–	1.02	0.98	+4%
iCF/60	–	16.61	16.79	-1%
iSCF/60	–	9.80	10.09	-3%
iHDCF/60	–	4.36	4.76	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.02 (96th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.98 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 8.18 vs 9.36) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.51	11.17	7.90	+41%
IPP	65.06	67.17	61.64	+9%
1A/60	0.67	0.72	0.63	+15%
2A/60	0.37	0.42	0.37	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.2% vs a 7.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.25	3.26	2.16	+51%
PP iSH%	12.93	11.09	13.45	-18%
PP SOG/60	12.96	10.91	15.88	-31%
PP ixG/60	–	2.09	2.41	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.3→2.2 PP TOI/gp (A clean second-unit share, deepening the earlier trim. Barkov is back and Brady Tkachuk arrives, so the 2 spots Bennett could have claimed are both spoken for. His 3.20 was earned across a season Barkov missed from start to finish. 2.25 is what Florida's second unit actually pays.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.65	3.70	3.93	-6%
Hits/60	5.56	6.39	9.08	-30%
Blks/60	1.98	1.85	2.14	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.68/60 and 2nd-half 3.23 below the 6.39 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.56/60, weighting the recent decline over the 9.08 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.35/60 and 2nd-half 1.98 vs a 1.85 season rate (2.14 3-yr) (27th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.98/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.70/60 (87th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.