Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H237 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3218 GP · 3y
TOI	19.23	19.09	18.14	17.46	20.20
PP TOI	3.10	2.82	3.21	2.46	2.91
G	27	29	34	24	33
A	44	44	38	48	44
PTS	71	72	72	72	77
PPP	15	15	16	14	15
SOG	200	180	171	188	234
PIM	65	63	66	60	74
Hits	100	115	128	103	90
Blocks	38	40	35	45	41

Sample: 77 GP · 1,085 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

21Seth Jarvis87

22Mika Zibanejad84

23Alex Tuch84

24Travis Konecny81

25Steven Stamkos81

26Zach Hyman81

27Pavel Dorofeyev79

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSupport 5v5 baselines for Flyers transition forwards. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 93% above where it started (11.58 in the first half, 22.31 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 34 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 54% above his 3-year rate last season (5.47 against 3.56).

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 22% above his 3-year rate last season (2.15 against 1.76).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adrian KempeRW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: PIM, A, SOG, G
Brandon HagelLW · Tampa Bay Lightning83% match
shared: PIM, A, SOG, G
Sam BennettC · Florida Panthers82% match
shared: PIM, SOG, G, Hits
Brad MarchandLW,RW · Florida Panthers82% match
shared: PIM, A, SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Travis Konecny is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Alex OvechkinLW,RW · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Drake BathersonLW,RW · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.23	19.09	20.20	-6%
5v5 TOI	14.18	14.10	14.53	-3%
PP TOI	3.10	2.82	2.91	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 18 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.23: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.18: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.10: same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.2, Q4 3.1) over the full-year 2.8; Raise assist/PPP baseline; treat the PP role as real.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.63	6.63	7.90	-16%
G/60	0.88	1.11	0.85	+30%
iSH%	13.29	16.74	10.79	+55%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.71	-12%
iCF/60	–	12.05	15.72	-23%
iSCF/60	–	6.19	7.71	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	3.04	2.97	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 18 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 16.7% vs a 10.8% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 13.3% pulls the goal rate ~21% down.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 6.63 vs 7.90) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.63	11.38	8.40	+35%
IPP	79.45	77.85	81.49	-4%
1A/60	0.80	0.72	0.89	-19%
2A/60	0.49	0.50	0.42	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 18 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise assist/PPP baseline; treat the PP role as real. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.4% vs a 8.4% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.10	2.82	2.91	-3%
PP iSH%	11.84	5.85	16.17	-64%
PP SOG/60	9.51	9.40	9.94	-5%
PP ixG/60	–	2.15	1.76	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 18 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise assist/PPP baseline; treat the PP role as real. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.8→3.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.2, Q4 3.1) over the full-year 2.8; Raise assist/PPP baseline; treat the PP role as real.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (5.9% vs 16.2%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.54	2.38	2.48	-4%
Hits/60	4.71	5.47	3.56	+54%
Blks/60	1.48	1.60	1.46	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 18 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.47/60 (64th pct league-wide) → 4.71 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.33/60 and 2nd-half 1.27 below the 1.60 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.48/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.46 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.