Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2671 GP	H235 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	19.73	19.76	19.31	17.30	19.55
PP TOI	2.44	2.21	2.77	1.66	2.07
G	38	42	44	39	30
A	48	44	50	38	46
PTS	86	86	95	77	77
PPP	15	14	16	11	11
SOG	239	247	259	235	197
PIM	59	67	74	60	64
Hits	38	49	29	67	61
Blocks	50	44	48	40	51

Sample: 71 GP · 983 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

12J.T. Miller102

13Alex DeBrincat100

14Tim Stützle100

15Brandon Hagel99

16Dylan Holloway99

17Kyle Connor98

18Timo Meier92

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 65% above where it started (1.66 in the first half, 2.74 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 84% above his 3-year rate last season (13.00 against 7.08).

Second-half fade

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 70% below where it started (3.44 in the first half, 1.02 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (1.96 against 1.27).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Travis KonecnyRW · Philadelphia Flyers83% match
shared: PIM, A, SOG, G
Mark ScheifeleC · Winnipeg Jets81% match
shared: A, G, PIM, Blocks
Alex TuchRW · Washington Capitals80% match
shared: G, PIM, SOG, Blocks
Adrian KempeRW · Los Angeles Kings79% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brandon Hagel is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
Dylan CozensC · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
J.T. MillerC,LW,RW · New York Rangerscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Drake BathersonLW,RW · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.73	19.76	19.55	+1%
5v5 TOI	14.31	13.85	14.53	-5%
PP TOI	2.44	2.21	2.07	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 21 · 14

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.73: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.31: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.44: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 2.6) over the full-year 2.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.91	8.91	7.45	+20%
G/60	1.30	1.40	0.94	+48%
iSH%	14.56	15.71	12.68	+24%
ixG/60	–	1.20	0.89	+35%
iCF/60	–	20.87	14.18	+47%
iSCF/60	–	12.33	9.20	+34%
iHDCF/60	–	5.31	4.21	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 21 · 14

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.20 (99th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.89 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 20% (5v5 SOG/60 8.91 vs 7.45) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.33 (1st half) to 1.07 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.46	11.73	10.23	+15%
IPP	74.31	74.19	74.81	-1%
1A/60	1.04	1.10	0.89	+24%
2A/60	0.55	0.49	0.55	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 21 · 14

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.7% vs a 10.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 20.87 vs 14.18) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.31 vs 4.21) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.44	2.21	2.07	+7%
PP iSH%	14.86	14.69	14.99	-2%
PP SOG/60	11.89	13.00	7.08	+84%
PP ixG/60	–	1.96	1.27	+55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 21 · 14

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.2→2.4 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 2.6) over the full-year 2.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.96 vs 1.27) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.36	2.75	2.68	+3%
Hits/60	1.73	2.26	2.71	-17%
Blks/60	1.49	1.40	1.94	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 21 · 14

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 1.02 below the 2.26 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.73/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.71 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.58/60 and 2nd-half 1.42 below the 1.40 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.49/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.94 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.