Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2659 GP	H226 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3166 GP · 3y
TOI	18.07	18.25	17.39	17.00	13.35
PP TOI	2.29	2.25	2.30	2.21	1.01
G	▲34	31	36	27	17
A	▲39	40	61	24	23
PTS	▲73	71	97	51	40
PPP	▲16	11	16	7	7
SOG	218	225	260	198	137
PIM	36	28	28	27	33
Hits	174	179	121	225	167
Blocks	52	57	45	66	40

Sample: 59 GP · 862 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

13Alex DeBrincat100

14Tim Stützle100

15Brandon Hagel99

16Dylan Holloway99

17Kyle Connor98

18Timo Meier92

19Clayton Keller90

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Engine regresses his 59-GP breakout to ~60 (small-sample pull to a multi-year that still includes two ancient development years). Conviction the breakout holds lifts him toward ~70 (Fantrax agrees).

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 61 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 123% above his 3-year rate last season (2.25 against 1.01).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 7 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

TOI

TOI ran 37% above his 3-year rate last season (18.25 against 13.35).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jimmy SnuggerudRW · St. Louis Blues85% match
shared: Blocks, G, A, SOG
Adam FantilliC · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, SOG
Matthew KniesLW · Toronto Maple Leafs81% match
shared: Hits, A, G
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets79% match
shared: G, A, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dylan Holloway is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: PPP, PIM
Mikko RantanenRW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PPP, PIM
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.07	18.25	13.35	+37%
5v5 TOI	14.57	14.63	11.79	+24%
PP TOI	2.29	2.25	1.01	+123%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 7 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.07: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.57: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.29: holds last year's role; Trust the H2/Q4 PP role — bump projected PP TOI toward ~2.44, lifting PP points.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.45	8.34	6.99	+19%
G/60	0.90	0.90	0.73	+23%
iSH%	10.68	10.79	10.50	+3%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.68	+25%
iCF/60	–	15.85	13.45	+18%
iSCF/60	–	9.11	7.20	+27%
iHDCF/60	–	3.41	3.46	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 7 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.68 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 19% (5v5 SOG/60 8.34 vs 6.99) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.17	12.64	9.15	+38%
IPP	70.71	72.39	67.05	+8%
1A/60	0.69	0.70	0.58	+20%
2A/60	0.66	0.97	0.49	+97%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 7 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.6% vs a 9.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.85 vs 13.45) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.97 vs 3-yr 0.49) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.29	2.25	1.01	+123%
PP iSH%	18.51	13.34	19.97	-33%
PP SOG/60	14.66	13.57	12.54	+8%
PP ixG/60	–	1.35	1.73	-22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 7 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 60-70 on line quality and PP growth. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindTrust the H2/Q4 PP role — bump projected PP TOI toward ~2.44, lifting PP points. · Phil (context note)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.63	1.39	1.90	-27%
Hits/60	7.62	8.55	10.11	-15%
Blks/60	2.35	2.64	2.33	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 7 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 70+ and keep a strong multi-category floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 5.99/60 and 2nd-half 4.90 below the 8.55 season rate — projected DOWN to 7.62/60, weighting the recent decline over the 10.11 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.07/60 and 2nd-half 1.99 below the 2.64 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.35/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.33 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.14/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.