Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3131 GP · 2y
TOI	19.80	18.90	18.06	17.49	16.82
PP TOI	2.96	2.60	2.74	2.46	1.83
G	29	24	26	22	27
A	39	35	39	31	24
PTS	68	59	65	53	51
PPP	19	13	18	8	4
SOG	▲244	214	210	218	192
PIM	42	38	47	29	21
Hits	▼145	139	188	87	110
Blocks	56	51	48	54	51

Sample: 82 GP · 1,233 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

12Aleksander Barkov113

13Dylan Larkin107

14J.T. Miller102

15Adam Fantilli102

16Tim Stützle100

17Mark Scheifele94

18Vincent Trocheck91

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): HITS trimmed 158 -> 145 on 2026-07-27 (rate-consistent, see set). Points HELD at 68 in the same pass: the outside 79 rests on 50 assists, but his 1.35 a/60 in 2025-26 was already a career high and our 39 A implies 1.51 — we are already projecting above his best rate, and both independent outside reads landed on exactly 68. CONSERVATISM PASS 2026-07-19 (report-card lesson: don't over-bump a young forward past his career year - Pettersson/Matthews ran cold off rich projections). The engine already banks the breakout on its own: PTS 59->67 and PPP 13->19 with no adjustment. His GOAL rebound is process-backed - 2025-26 ixG 1.07 was a career high on 0.93 g/60 (under-finished), so the rising-process guard protects the goals; G mult retired as redundant with that. The overreach was PP: the old deploy pp x1.1 stacked a minutes bump (2.6->3.26 PP TOI) on top of a career-high PP-assist spike (2.53 A/60, up from 0.93), pushing PPP to 20 vs a 13 actual. Retired it - PP TOI sits at the engine's honest ~2.9, PPP ~18, still a healthy Jenner-vacated bump but not stacked optimism. Nets ~66. Only SOG kept (more ice -> more shots is the cleanest read). Holds the 100+ hit floor.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextMild caution on Columbus star ceilings; value gated by coach trust. · Coaching landscape report

RiskTemper Fantilli's growth curve under a defense-first coach. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 8 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 188 pace in the second half after 87 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 42% above his 3-year rate last season (2.60 against 1.83).

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 32% above his 3-year rate last season (0.87 against 0.66).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen TippettLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyers90% match
shared: Blocks, SOG, Hits
Dylan HollowayLW · St. Louis Blues85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, SOG
Boone JennerC,LW · Washington Capitals84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, SOG
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: Hits, SOG, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adam Fantilli is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.80	18.90	16.82	+12%
5v5 TOI	15.75	15.04	13.86	+9%
PP TOI	2.96	2.60	1.83	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.80: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias; Boost PTS/SOG/PPP and hold the strong HITS floor as ice time climbs.
5v5 TOI → 15.75: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias; Boost PTS/SOG/PPP and hold the strong HITS floor as ice time climbs.
PP TOI → 2.96: same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.8, Q4 3.2) over the full-year 2.6; age 21 riser — small growth bias; Boost PTS/SOG/PPP and hold the strong HITS floor as ice time climbs.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.21	7.00	7.40	-5%
G/60	0.86	0.68	1.16	-41%
iSH%	11.97	9.71	15.65	-38%
ixG/60	–	0.87	0.66	+32%
iCF/60	–	15.08	15.90	-5%
iSCF/60	–	8.71	7.14	+22%
iHDCF/60	–	3.50	2.42	+45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost PTS/SOG/PPP and hold the strong HITS floor as ice time climbs. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 9.7% vs 15.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.87 (85th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 12.0%, lifting the goal rate ~27%.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.15	8.69	10.88	-20%
IPP	67.57	65.22	74.69	-13%
1A/60	0.54	0.49	0.63	-22%
2A/60	0.41	0.49	0.36	+35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.7%, IPP 65.2%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.50 vs 2.42) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.49 vs 3-yr 0.36) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.96	2.60	1.83	+42%
PP iSH%	6.78	7.88	5.99	+32%
PP SOG/60	14.02	14.34	12.51	+15%
PP ixG/60	–	2.16	1.60	+35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost PTS/SOG/PPP and hold the strong HITS floor as ice time climbs. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.6→3.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.8, Q4 3.2) over the full-year 2.6; age 21 riser — small growth bias; Boost PTS/SOG/PPP and hold the strong HITS floor as ice time climbs.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.16 vs 1.60) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.75	1.46	0.99	+47%
Hits/60	7.19	6.66	5.71	+17%
Blks/60	2.25	2.19	2.48	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost PTS/SOG/PPP and hold the strong HITS floor as ice time climbs. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 7.30/60 and 2nd-half 8.83 vs a 6.66 season rate (5.71 3-yr) (73rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 7.19/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.82/60 and 2nd-half 2.05 below the 2.19 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.25/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.48 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.