Overview
@HockeyBangers
Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.
| Per 82 GP | 2026-27projection adj | 2025-2682 GP | H242 GP | H140 GP | Prev 3158 GP · 2y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOI | 18.16 | 18.31 | 18.53 | 16.14 | 14.83 |
| PP TOI | 1.84 | 1.69 | 1.81 | 1.56 | 1.14 |
| G | 21 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 16 |
| A | 22 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 18 |
| PTS | 43 | 44 | 48 | 40 | 34 |
| PPP | 5 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 4 |
| SOG | ▼215 | 209 | 226 | 191 | 176 |
| PIM | 25 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 34 |
| Hits | ▲240 | 255 | 279 | 230 | 123 |
| Blocks | 52 | 49 | 53 | 45 | 36 |
Sample: 82 GP · 1,149 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates
Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.
Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hits set to 240. His hit rate jumped from 5.8 per 60 to 10.2 in 2025-26, worth 255 per 82 games, and the engine shrinks that to 217 because the peripheral base rate still gives 40% weight to the 3 prior years. Our own persistence testing says big hit swings hold about 80% of the time, so most of that step should carry. 240 sits below both his own 255 and the external 267, leaving room for the chance that part of the jump is rink and scorekeeper bias, and for his move down to the third line. Shots trimmed to 215, just under his 2024-26 pace of 206 to 208, since 231 would be a career high he hasn't earned yet.
Metrics worth highlighting
PP SOG/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (6.69 in the first half, 20.69 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.
PP ixG/60 finished the year 148% above where it started (1.75 in the first half, 4.33 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.
Hits/60 ran 84% above his 3-year rate last season (12.16 against 6.62).
PP TOI ran 48% above his 3-year rate last season (1.69 against 1.14).
Similar & complementary players
Deployment
| Metric | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOI | 18.16 | 18.31 | 14.83 | +23% |
| 5v5 TOI | 14.57 | 14.02 | 13.20 | +6% |
| PP TOI | 1.84 | 1.69 | 1.14 | +48% |
Shooting — volume & conversion
How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).
| Metric (5v5) | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOG/60 | 8.40 | 8.40 | 8.37 | +0% |
| G/60 | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.80 | +5% |
| iSH% | 9.85 | 10.00 | 9.60 | +4% |
| ixG/60 | – | 0.96 | 0.96 | +0% |
| iCF/60 | – | 19.52 | 17.90 | +9% |
| iSCF/60 | – | 11.43 | 10.19 | +12% |
| iHDCF/60 | – | 5.06 | 4.49 | +13% |
Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense
Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.
| Metric (5v5) | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on-ice SH% | 8.73 | 8.74 | 8.72 | +0% |
| IPP | 69.25 | 72.24 | 63.64 | +14% |
| 1A/60 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.52 | -19% |
| 2A/60 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.29 | +81% |
Power play
PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.
| Metric | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP TOI | 1.84 | 1.69 | 1.14 | +48% |
| PP iSH% | 7.15 | 9.10 | 5.74 | +58% |
| PP SOG/60 | 18.32 | 14.29 | 11.65 | +23% |
| PP ixG/60 | – | 3.30 | 1.96 | +68% |
Physical — PIM · hits · blocks
Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.
| Metric (5v5) | 26-27 proj | 2025-26 | Prev 3 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIMs/60 | 0.91 | 0.73 | 1.84 | -60% |
| Hits/60 | 9.94 | 12.16 | 6.62 | +84% |
| Blks/60 | 1.89 | 1.83 | 1.98 | -8% |