Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H239 GP	H138 GP	Prev 372 GP · 1y
TOI	14.73	14.47	13.65	14.65	13.32
PP TOI	2.03	2.09	1.62	2.57	1.65
G	16	13	17	9	17
A	18	21	12	31	18
PTS	34	34	29	40	35
PPP	9	11	6	15	13
SOG	172	170	168	173	147
PIM	23	32	38	26	14
Hits	155	145	129	161	153
Blocks	39	35	35	36	36

Sample: 77 GP · 925 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

90Michael Pezzetta19

91Tyler Toffoli18

92Dakota Joshua17

93Mackie Samoskevich17

94Zachary L'Heureux16

95Artturi Lehkonen16

96Connor McMichael16

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (3.54 in the first half, 12.03 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 17 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 119% above his 3-year rate last season (1.95 against 0.89).

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 30% below his 3-year rate last season (13.41 against 19.15).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruins88% match
shared: Hits
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers87% match
shared: Hits
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: Hits
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders85% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mackie Samoskevich is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year (FLA, traded): Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.73	14.47	13.32	+9%
5v5 TOI	12.59	12.01	11.23	+7%
PP TOI	2.03	2.09	1.65	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.73: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 12.59: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 2.03: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.01	7.78	6.31	+23%
G/60	0.69	0.52	0.74	-30%
iSH%	8.60	6.68	11.73	-43%
ixG/60	–	1.00	0.80	+25%
iCF/60	–	16.22	14.33	+13%
iSCF/60	–	9.47	8.09	+17%
iHDCF/60	–	4.73	3.49	+36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.7% vs 11.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 1.00 (94th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 8.6%, lifting the goal rate ~33%.

TailwindShot volume up 23% (5v5 SOG/60 7.78 vs 6.31) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.89→1.09 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.58	7.81	6.52	+20%
IPP	62.28	61.54	67.00	-8%
1A/60	0.57	0.65	0.45	+44%
2A/60	0.16	0.19	0.15	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 7.8% vs a 6.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.22 vs 14.33) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.73 vs 3.49) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.03	2.09	1.65	+26%
PP iSH%	10.67	11.11	10.55	+5%
PP SOG/60	13.89	13.41	19.15	-30%
PP ixG/60	–	2.21	3.15	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.53	1.95	0.89	+119%
Hits/60	8.79	8.63	9.50	-9%
Blks/60	2.20	2.08	2.38	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 8.02/60 and 2nd-half 7.61 below the 8.63 season rate — projected DOWN to 8.79/60, weighting the recent decline over the 9.50 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.08/60 (35th pct league-wide) → 2.20 projected.