Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2655 GP	H219 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3199 GP · 3y
TOI	12.37	12.25	12.34	11.92	12.84
PP TOI	0.38	0.26	0.70	0.03	0.32
G	13	15	17	14	15
A	12	12	19	8	14
PTS	25	27	36	22	28
PPP	2	0	0	0	2
SOG	80	78	81	76	85
PIM	66	73	103	57	65
Hits	275	291	298	287	271
Blocks	40	48	33	55	40

Sample: 55 GP · 616 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

89Jonah Gadjovich19

90Michael Pezzetta19

91Tyler Toffoli18

92Dakota Joshua17

93Mackie Samoskevich17

94Zachary L'Heureux16

95Artturi Lehkonen16

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 103 pace in the second half after 57 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (18.67).

Below his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 16% below his 3-year rate last season (0.69 against 0.83).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack McBainC,LW · Utah Mammoth96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche96% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins95% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers93% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dakota Joshua is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.37	12.25	12.84	-5%
5v5 TOI	11.17	11.22	11.18	+0%
PP TOI	0.38	0.26	0.32	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 6 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.37: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.17: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.38: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 0.7 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.38	4.47	4.94	-9%
G/60	0.79	0.97	0.76	+28%
iSH%	18.02	21.70	15.36	+41%
ixG/60	–	0.69	0.83	-16%
iCF/60	–	7.97	8.85	-10%
iSCF/60	–	5.74	6.82	-16%
iHDCF/60	–	3.50	4.39	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 6 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 21.7% vs a 15.4% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.69 (60th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 18.0% pulls the goal rate ~19% down.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.66	11.61	8.12	+43%
IPP	67.23	62.74	75.44	-17%
1A/60	0.48	0.49	0.46	+7%
2A/60	0.23	0.19	0.35	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 6 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.6% vs a 8.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.38	0.26	0.32	-18%
PP iSH%	17.40	0.00	30.00	-100%
PP SOG/60	12.79	16.65	9.39	+77%
PP ixG/60	–	4.71	2.23	+112%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 6 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.3→0.4 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 0.7 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 30.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.76	4.57	3.94	+16%
Hits/60	18.04	18.67	17.10	+9%
Blks/60	2.17	2.63	2.00	+32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 6 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (97th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (18.04/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.86/60 and 2nd-half 2.13 below the 2.63 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.17/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.00 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.29/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.