Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2665 GP	H232 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	19.40	19.42	17.75	17.91	19.32
PP TOI	2.87	2.80	2.53	3.07	3.39
G	37	38	46	30	42
A	53	62	57	66	48
PTS	90	100	104	96	90
PPP	26	28	36	20	31
SOG	249	197	225	170	287
PIM	21	20	13	27	26
Hits	21	16	20	13	21
Blocks	32	33	40	26	27

Sample: 65 GP · 969 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

15Cutter Gauthier104

16J.T. Miller102

17Dylan Guenther102

18William Nylander93

19Timo Meier92

20Mitch Marner88

21Seth Jarvis87

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 64% above where it started (0.53 in the first half, 0.86 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (1.11 against 0.72).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 38% above his 3-year rate last season (16.33 against 11.79).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kings91% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jets90% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devils89% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammoth88% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where William Nylander is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.40	19.42	19.32	+0%
5v5 TOI	14.95	14.92	14.30	+4%
PP TOI	2.87	2.80	3.39	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.40: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.95: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.87: role tapered late (Q4 2.8 vs 2.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.76	6.43	9.81	-34%
G/60	0.93	1.05	1.16	-9%
iSH%	13.70	16.33	11.79	+38%
ixG/60	–	0.69	0.91	-24%
iCF/60	–	12.93	17.54	-26%
iSCF/60	–	6.25	9.66	-35%
iHDCF/60	–	3.16	3.97	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 16.3% vs a 11.8% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.69 (60th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 13.7% pulls the goal rate ~12% down.

RiskShot volume down 34% (5v5 SOG/60 6.43 vs 9.81) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.53→0.86 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	12.28	13.59	9.60	+42%
IPP	74.56	74.52	74.69	-0%
1A/60	0.93	1.11	0.72	+55%
2A/60	0.42	0.56	0.44	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 13.6% vs a 9.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.87	2.80	3.39	-17%
PP iSH%	16.09	23.30	16.09	+45%
PP SOG/60	10.98	9.87	14.32	-31%
PP ixG/60	–	1.42	1.99	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSupport PP1 usage for Toronto's top skill; deployment not hierarchy-bound. · Coaching landscape report

ContextPP role steady at ~2.9 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (23.3% vs 16.1% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.42) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.75	0.87	0.99	-12%
Hits/60	0.87	0.68	0.99	-31%
Blks/60	1.36	1.24	1.14	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.45/60 and 2nd-half 0.72 vs a 0.68 season rate (0.99 3-yr) (3rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.87/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.66/60 and 2nd-half 1.60 vs a 1.24 season rate (1.14 3-yr) (9th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.36/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.