Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H241 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3227 GP · 3y
TOI	18.49	18.52	17.44	17.47	18.31
PP TOI	1.85	2.01	1.80	2.24	2.38
G	30	26	21	30	34
A	24	21	15	29	28
PTS	54	47	37	59	62
PPP	13	11	2	21	19
SOG	278	286	297	275	280
PIM	46	24	24	23	53
Hits	136	139	123	158	146
Blocks	61	56	60	52	61

Sample: 77 GP · 1,177 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

15Brandon Hagel99

16Dylan Holloway99

17Kyle Connor98

18Timo Meier92

19Clayton Keller90

20Mitch Marner88

21Artemi Panarin85

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 92% above last season, 24 to 46.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 64% above his 3-year rate last season (3.84 against 2.34).

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 37 pace in the second half after 59 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Anders LeeLW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: G, Hits, SOG, Blocks
Joel Eriksson EkC · Minnesota Wild85% match
shared: SOG, G, Hits, Blocks
Adam FantilliC · Columbus Blue Jackets82% match
shared: Blocks, SOG, Hits
Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders82% match
shared: SOG, G, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Timo Meier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.49	18.52	18.31	+1%
5v5 TOI	15.45	15.29	14.87	+3%
PP TOI	1.85	2.01	2.38	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.49: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.45: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.85: role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 2.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.83	9.83	10.29	-4%
G/60	0.75	0.66	0.94	-30%
iSH%	7.65	6.71	9.17	-27%
ixG/60	–	1.22	1.09	+12%
iCF/60	–	21.15	21.24	-0%
iSCF/60	–	10.60	11.36	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	4.84	4.66	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.7% vs 9.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 1.22 (100th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 7.6%, lifting the goal rate ~14%.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.34	6.57	8.72	-25%
IPP	69.28	71.86	65.71	+9%
1A/60	0.44	0.46	0.45	+3%
2A/60	0.39	0.31	0.37	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.6%, IPP 71.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.85	2.01	2.38	-16%
PP iSH%	18.54	11.76	23.45	-50%
PP SOG/60	19.08	19.82	16.10	+23%
PP ixG/60	–	3.84	2.34	+64%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.9 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (11.8% vs 23.5%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.38	1.02	2.52	-60%
Hits/60	6.08	6.27	6.75	-7%
Blks/60	2.69	2.60	2.73	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.40/60 and 2nd-half 5.30 below the 6.27 season rate — projected DOWN to 6.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 6.75 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.15/60 and 2nd-half 2.78 vs a 2.60 season rate (2.73 3-yr) (51st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.69/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.