Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2668 GP	H232 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3241 GP · 3y
TOI	20.64	20.76	19.23	18.77	20.17
PP TOI	3.51	3.57	3.10	3.99	3.13
G	35	37	25	48	34
A	31	31	31	31	33
PTS	66	69	57	79	66
PPP	▲20	19	10	27	16
SOG	259	272	265	279	245
PIM	30	48	23	71	25
Hits	63	62	61	62	74
Blocks	46	46	48	44	45

Sample: 68 GP · 912 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

22Nico Hischier84

23Sidney Crosby84

24Leo Carlsson82

25Bo Horvat82

26Sam Bennett81

27Joel Eriksson Ek81

28Steven Stamkos81

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextKeep top Islanders secure; discount depth-scoring upside. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 48 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 134% above his 3-year rate last season (2.37 against 1.01).

Top of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 98th percentile league-wide (9.27).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tage ThompsonC,RW · Buffalo Sabres90% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP
Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth88% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP
Joel Eriksson EkC · Minnesota Wild87% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, Blocks
Cutter GauthierLW,RW · Anaheim Ducks86% match
shared: SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Bo Horvat is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.64	20.76	20.17	+3%
5v5 TOI	13.93	13.43	14.74	-9%
PP TOI	3.51	3.57	3.13	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 14 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.64: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.93: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.51: established top role held near 3.6 — the late dip (Q4 3.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.27	9.27	7.92	+17%
G/60	1.12	1.18	0.88	+34%
iSH%	12.11	12.73	11.09	+15%
ixG/60	–	0.93	0.80	+16%
iCF/60	–	16.10	13.70	+18%
iSCF/60	–	9.53	8.09	+18%
iHDCF/60	–	3.55	3.75	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 14 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.93 (89th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.80 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 17% (5v5 SOG/60 9.27 vs 7.92) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.80	8.77	8.85	-1%
IPP	66.97	65.02	69.83	-7%
1A/60	0.53	0.39	0.69	-44%
2A/60	0.36	0.26	0.42	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 14 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.8%, IPP 65.0%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.10 vs 13.70) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.51	3.57	3.13	+14%
PP iSH%	14.50	12.97	15.61	-17%
PP SOG/60	11.05	13.34	12.73	+5%
PP ixG/60	–	2.10	1.95	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 14 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextBoost Schaefer usage baseline; small ceiling trim for Horvat/Barzal. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.5 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.66	2.37	1.01	+134%
Hits/60	3.16	3.22	3.50	-8%
Blks/60	1.81	1.84	1.84	-0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 14 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.46/60 and 2nd-half 3.21 below the 3.22 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.16/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.50 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.97/60 and 2nd-half 1.94 below the 1.84 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.81/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.84 3-yr mark.