Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2676 GP	H235 GP	H141 GP	Prev 382 GP · 1y
TOI	17.51	17.25	15.91	16.51	14.16
PP TOI	3.20	2.80	3.21	2.46	1.55
G	▲42	44	52	37	20
A	▲34	30	21	38	24
PTS	▲76	75	73	76	44
PPP	19	20	26	16	6
SOG	299	305	299	311	190
PIM	31	30	30	30	20
Hits	82	69	83	57	68
Blocks	33	22	21	23	51

Sample: 76 GP · 996 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

8Andrei Svechnikov113

9Filip Forsberg111

10Juraj Slafkovsky104

11Cutter Gauthier104

12J.T. Miller102

13Alex DeBrincat100

14Tim Stützle100

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Ascending; deep-dive pegs a 74-pt ceiling. Modest boost, not the full ceiling. PP TOI boosted 2.9->3.2 (playoff 2nd-in-line, ahead of Terry/Carlsson).

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindRaise 5v5 floors for Anaheim's young core; minutes must be earned defensively. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 80% above his 3-year rate last season (2.80 against 1.55).

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 74% below where it started (0.84 in the first half, 0.22 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 83% above his 3-year rate last season (2.45 against 1.34).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zach HymanRW · Edmonton Oilers86% match
shared: G, SOG
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: G, SOG
Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders86% match
shared: SOG, G
Carter VerhaegheLW · Florida Panthers83% match
shared: SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Cutter Gauthier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.51	17.25	14.16	+22%
5v5 TOI	12.61	13.11	12.10	+8%
PP TOI	3.20	2.80	1.55	+80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 14

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.51: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 12.61: role tapered late (Q4 11.5 vs 13.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; age 22 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.20: Boosted on playoff PP usage — he was 2nd in line at 2:46, AHEAD of Terry and Carlsson, so his 2.9 under-rated the role. Ascending shot-volume forward; ~3.2 as a genuine PP1 lock.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	11.91	11.56	9.50	+22%
G/60	1.40	1.51	0.91	+66%
iSH%	11.74	13.06	9.58	+36%
ixG/60	–	1.09	0.92	+18%
iCF/60	–	23.07	20.14	+15%
iSCF/60	–	10.84	9.13	+19%
iHDCF/60	–	3.49	3.45	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 14

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindDiscount Terry's games/availability; nudge Gauthier's early-season role up. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindHold an elite shot-volume goal baseline; a legit top-scoring asset. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindBoost G/SOG; keep assists modest. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.09 (98th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.92 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 22% (5v5 SOG/60 11.56 vs 9.50) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.99→1.25 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.36	9.97	10.95	-9%
IPP	72.06	74.62	68.21	+9%
1A/60	0.63	0.60	0.67	-10%
2A/60	0.44	0.36	0.48	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 14

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.0%, IPP 74.6%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 23.07 vs 20.14) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.20	2.80	1.55	+80%
PP iSH%	12.03	16.68	8.67	+92%
PP SOG/60	18.59	18.59	10.84	+71%
PP ixG/60	–	2.45	1.34	+83%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 14

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.8→3.2 PP TOI/gp (Boosted on playoff PP usage — he was 2nd in line at 2:46, AHEAD of Terry and Carlsson, so his 2.9 under-rated the role. Ascending shot-volume forward; ~3.2 as a genuine PP1 lock.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.45 vs 1.34) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.63	1.57	1.21	+30%
Hits/60	4.36	3.61	4.11	-12%
Blks/60	1.05	0.78	2.72	-71%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 14

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.83/60 and 2nd-half 4.62 vs a 3.61 season rate (4.11 3-yr) (45th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.36/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (1st pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.