Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2658 GP	H235 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3232 GP · 3y
TOI	19.66	19.98	18.98	18.56	19.53
PP TOI	3.50	3.62	3.63	3.74	3.31
G	40	44	43	53	41
A	28	30	25	34	31
PTS	68	73	68	87	72
PPP	20	21	16	35	20
SOG	238	225	216	246	275
PIM	41	40	36	55	42
Hits	76	79	55	53	78
Blocks	25	25	32	13	27

Sample: 58 GP · 888 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

23Alex Tuch84

24Travis Konecny81

25Steven Stamkos81

26Zach Hyman81

27Pavel Dorofeyev79

28Kevin Fiala79

29Alex Ovechkin78

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 35 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 35% above where it started (0.43 in the first half, 0.58 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (3.62).

Top of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (1.29).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cutter GauthierLW,RW · Anaheim Ducks86% match
shared: G, SOG
Carter VerhaegheLW · Florida Panthers84% match
shared: SOG, G
Chris KreiderLW · Anaheim Ducks83% match
shared: G, PPP
Alex OvechkinLW,RW · Washington Capitals83% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zach Hyman is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.66	19.98	19.53	+2%
5v5 TOI	15.07	15.32	15.21	+1%
PP TOI	3.50	3.62	3.31	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 19 · 22 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.66: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.07: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.50: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.99	7.29	9.52	-23%
G/60	0.89	0.95	1.19	-20%
iSH%	12.73	13.03	12.51	+4%
ixG/60	–	1.29	1.35	-4%
iCF/60	–	13.57	16.56	-18%
iSCF/60	–	10.80	12.41	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	7.50	7.28	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 19 · 22 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 13.0% sits near the 12.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 1.29 (100th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 23% (5v5 SOG/60 7.29 vs 9.52) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.72	10.83	10.57	+3%
IPP	55.02	53.85	56.54	-5%
1A/60	0.52	0.54	0.58	-6%
2A/60	0.33	0.34	0.44	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 19 · 22 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.8%, IPP 53.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.50	3.62	3.31	+9%
PP iSH%	23.27	25.65	21.54	+19%
PP SOG/60	11.63	11.15	13.07	-15%
PP ixG/60	–	3.26	3.16	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 19 · 22 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.5 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.55	1.49	1.48	+1%
Hits/60	3.35	3.44	3.50	-2%
Blks/60	0.90	0.95	1.15	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 19 · 22 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.42/60 and 2nd-half 3.14 vs a 3.44 season rate (3.50 3-yr) (43rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.35/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.95 below the 0.95 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.90/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.15 3-yr mark.