Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H240 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3231 GP · 3y
TOI	19.03	18.99	17.97	17.66	19.30
PP TOI	1.75	1.68	1.52	1.84	2.76
G	34	34	41	27	33
A	35	34	23	46	39
PTS	69	69	64	73	73
PPP	10	9	12	6	15
SOG	207	202	194	211	216
PIM	45	59	33	86	43
Hits	80	85	82	88	71
Blocks	95	93	90	97	83

Sample: 79 GP · 1,082 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

20Mitch Marner88

21Seth Jarvis87

22Mika Zibanejad84

23Alex Tuch84

24Travis Konecny81

25Steven Stamkos81

26Zach Hyman81

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 6 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 46 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 39% below his 3-year rate last season (1.68 against 2.76).

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 50% above his 3-year rate last season (12.68 against 8.46).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Boone JennerC,LW · Washington Capitals81% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, SOG
Brandon HagelLW · Tampa Bay Lightning80% match
shared: G, PIM, SOG, Blocks
Tom WilsonRW · Washington Capitals80% match
shared: Blocks, G, PIM
Vincent TrocheckC · Utah Mammoth80% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, A, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Tuch is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
J.T. MillerC,LW,RW · New York Rangerscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Drake BathersonLW,RW · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Tim StützleC,LW · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year (BUF, traded): Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.03	18.99	19.30	-2%
5v5 TOI	13.86	13.70	13.60	+1%
PP TOI	1.75	1.68	2.76	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.03: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.86: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.75: role tapered late (Q4 1.5 vs 1.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.87	7.87	8.06	-2%
G/60	1.12	1.11	1.16	-4%
iSH%	14.22	14.10	14.42	-2%
ixG/60	–	0.81	0.82	-1%
iCF/60	–	15.30	15.27	+0%
iSCF/60	–	7.48	8.13	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	3.33	3.55	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSupport scoring baselines for both; Kyrou's scenery change (flagged earlier) is realized in a favorable role. · Analytics research compilation

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 14.1% sits near the 14.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.81 (78th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.36	12.60	10.54	+20%
IPP	72.69	71.31	74.37	-4%
1A/60	0.69	0.72	0.80	-10%
2A/60	0.62	0.78	0.51	+52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.6% vs a 10.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.78 vs 3-yr 0.51) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.75	1.68	2.76	-39%
PP iSH%	18.13	25.00	14.47	+73%
PP SOG/60	11.63	12.68	8.46	+50%
PP ixG/60	–	2.19	1.72	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.19 vs 1.72) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.96	2.61	1.81	+44%
Hits/60	3.53	3.77	3.17	+19%
Blks/60	3.23	3.16	3.34	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.77/60 (46th pct league-wide) → 3.53 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.16/60 (65th pct league-wide) → 3.23 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.