Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H242 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	17.47	17.35	15.76	17.00	18.31
PP TOI	3.29	3.19	3.21	3.17	3.40
G	27	34	32	36	25
A	37	39	34	45	40
PTS	64	74	67	82	65
PPP	28	31	31	31	27
SOG	178	173	166	182	212
PIM	34	34	28	42	35
Hits	121	127	126	127	120
Blocks	25	23	18	29	31

Sample: 79 GP · 1,037 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

26Tomas Hertl78

27Alex Ovechkin78

28Will Cuylle72

29Drake Batherson72

30Bobby McMann71

31Evgeni Malkin70

32Quinton Byfield68

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 86% above his 3-year rate last season (16.39 against 8.80).

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 48% above where it started (1.90 in the first half, 2.80 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 21% below last season, 34 to 27.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Martin NecasRW · Colorado Avalanche86% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG
John TavaresC · Toronto Maple Leafs83% match
shared: PPP, A, G, Hits
Sebastian AhoC · Carolina Hurricanes83% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG
Roope HintzC · Dallas Stars81% match
shared: PPP, A, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Drake Batherson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Gabriel LandeskogLW · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.47	17.35	18.31	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.82	13.14	13.96	-6%
PP TOI	3.29	3.19	3.40	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.47: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.82: role tapered late (Q4 12.1 vs 13.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 3.29: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.71	6.71	7.55	-11%
G/60	0.91	1.10	0.66	+66%
iSH%	13.51	16.39	8.80	+86%
ixG/60	–	0.91	0.76	+20%
iCF/60	–	13.59	14.41	-6%
iSCF/60	–	8.32	7.53	+10%
iHDCF/60	–	4.22	3.16	+34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress goals; cap ceiling given declining TOI. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.91 (88th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.76 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 6.71 vs 7.55) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.59	9.35	7.44	+26%
IPP	79.68	84.25	72.80	+16%
1A/60	0.59	0.52	0.70	-26%
2A/60	0.41	0.52	0.34	+55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 9.3% (3-yr 7.4%) AND IPP 84.3% (3-yr 72.8%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~10%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.22 vs 3.16) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.52 vs 3-yr 0.34) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.29	3.19	3.40	-6%
PP iSH%	25.14	32.56	19.77	+65%
PP SOG/60	10.30	9.52	12.36	-23%
PP ixG/60	–	2.38	2.42	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (32.6% vs 19.8% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.38) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.63	1.56	1.73	-10%
Hits/60	6.58	6.71	5.84	+15%
Blks/60	1.25	1.27	1.43	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 8.90/60 and 2nd-half 7.20 vs a 6.71 season rate (5.84 3-yr) (73rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.58/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.99/60 and 2nd-half 1.02 below the 1.27 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.25/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.43 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.