Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2653 GP	H217 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3229 GP · 3y
TOI	17.32	17.34	16.19	16.29	17.23
PP TOI	3.03	3.10	3.08	3.12	2.77
G	32	23	13	28	34
A	41	45	46	44	40
PTS	73	68	59	72	74
PPP	25	29	19	34	21
SOG	193	195	210	188	188
PIM	31	28	39	23	29
Hits	79	93	129	76	49
Blocks	44	28	42	21	45

Sample: 53 GP · 667 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

27Joel Eriksson Ek81

28Steven Stamkos81

29Dylan Cozens80

30Roope Hintz79

31Tomas Hertl78

32Evgeni Malkin70

33Quinton Byfield68

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 129 pace in the second half after 76 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 57% above last season, 28 to 44.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 65% below his 3-year rate last season (5.20 against 14.94).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kirill MarchenkoRW · Columbus Blue Jackets87% match
shared: A, PPP
Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth86% match
shared: PPP, G, A
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: G, A
John TavaresC · Toronto Maple Leafs85% match
shared: PPP, G, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Roope Hintz is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.32	17.34	17.23	+1%
5v5 TOI	12.55	12.60	12.38	+2%
PP TOI	3.03	3.10	2.77	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 17 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.32: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.55: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.03: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.02	6.92	7.37	-6%
G/60	0.49	0.36	1.10	-67%
iSH%	8.90	5.20	14.94	-65%
ixG/60	–	0.86	0.81	+6%
iCF/60	–	11.95	13.16	-9%
iSCF/60	–	8.54	8.55	-0%
iHDCF/60	–	4.04	4.25	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 17 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 5.2% vs 14.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.86 (83rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 8.9%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.73→1.16 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.48	12.15	10.96	+11%
IPP	56.84	50.15	68.96	-27%
1A/60	0.87	0.90	0.85	+6%
2A/60	0.39	0.36	0.44	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 17 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.1% vs a 11.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.03	3.10	2.77	+12%
PP iSH%	17.95	15.80	19.51	-19%
PP SOG/60	13.41	13.86	11.62	+19%
PP ixG/60	–	3.26	2.17	+50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 17 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.0 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.26 vs 2.17) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.73	1.44	1.52	-6%
Hits/60	5.19	5.12	2.67	+92%
Blks/60	1.92	1.44	2.24	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 17 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 7.31/60 and 2nd-half 7.31 vs a 5.12 season rate (2.67 3-yr) (61st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.19/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.25/60 and 2nd-half 2.25 vs a 1.44 season rate (2.24 3-yr) (15th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.92/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.