Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2676 GP	H240 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3216 GP · 3y
TOI	18.72	18.94	17.85	17.62	17.15
PP TOI	3.09	3.01	3.04	2.98	2.55
G	▼30	29	25	34	29
A	▲40	43	45	41	25
PTS	▲70	72	70	75	54
PPP	22	25	25	25	15
SOG	228	235	226	245	202
PIM	24	34	33	36	19
Hits	61	66	58	74	55
Blocks	43	43	37	50	43

Sample: 76 GP · 1,115 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

29Alex Ovechkin78

30Mark Stone75

31Beckett Sennecke74

32Kirill Marchenko73

33Will Cuylle72

34Drake Batherson72

35Mathieu Olivier72

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Shape correction, not a total correction - our 69 was only ~3% under AG, but we were the HIGHEST of three sources on goals and the LOWEST on assists. Lands ~30 G / 40 A / 70 PTS (71.7 per-84) vs AG's 72.7-72.9 and an outside 79.8. Context both AG hosts stress: Bowness caps this roster and Marchenko specifically is 'not a Bowness fit, a finesse player in a system built for grinders', so the conservative total is kept and only the split is moved. Live trade rumour flagged on air - revisit if he moves. PPP deliberately left at the engine's 22 (down from 25 last year on a slightly HIGHER 3.09 PP TOI); if the assist lift proves right, PP points are the next thing to check.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextMild caution on Columbus star ceilings; value gated by coach trust. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 112% above his 3-year rate last season (1.72 against 0.81).

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 36% below where it started (14.44 in the first half, 9.28 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 18% above his 3-year rate last season (3.01 against 2.55).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jared McCannC,LW · Seattle Kraken89% match
shared: SOG, PPP
Roope HintzC · Dallas Stars87% match
shared: A, PPP
Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth86% match
shared: SOG, PPP, A
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kirill Marchenko is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.72	18.94	17.15	+10%
5v5 TOI	14.56	14.67	13.72	+7%
PP TOI	3.09	3.01	2.55	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 20 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.72: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.56: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.09: same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.0, Q4 3.6) over the full-year 3.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.59	7.59	7.65	-1%
G/60	0.95	0.91	1.03	-12%
iSH%	12.55	11.99	13.47	-11%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.70	+21%
iCF/60	–	16.63	15.02	+11%
iSCF/60	–	8.50	7.80	+9%
iHDCF/60	–	3.01	2.79	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 20 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.70 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.94 (1st half) to 0.76 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.61	9.38	10.11	-7%
IPP	66.18	70.80	59.80	+18%
1A/60	0.60	0.59	0.53	+12%
2A/60	0.34	0.43	0.24	+77%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 20 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 70.8% vs 59.8% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.63 vs 15.02) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.09	3.01	2.55	+18%
PP iSH%	14.74	12.49	15.38	-19%
PP SOG/60	12.41	12.57	12.75	-1%
PP ixG/60	–	1.79	1.93	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 20 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.37	1.72	0.81	+112%
Hits/60	2.90	3.12	2.57	+21%
Blks/60	1.80	1.83	2.19	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 20 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.12/60 (40th pct league-wide) → 2.90 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.23/60 and 2nd-half 1.52 below the 1.83 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.19 3-yr mark.