Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2661 GP	H234 GP	H127 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	13.99	14.23	14.06	13.58	12.69
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.11
G	15	20	23	16	11
A	14	15	10	21	13
PTS	29	35	33	37	24
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	115	126	143	106	97
PIM	130	136	118	157	118
Hits	280	281	281	281	262
Blocks	72	56	51	63	68

Sample: 61 GP · 793 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

32Kirill Marchenko73

33Will Cuylle72

34Drake Batherson72

35Mathieu Olivier72

36Ryan Leonard70

37Rickard Rakell67

38Mathew Barzal66

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 21 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 finished the year 94% above where it started (3.20 in the first half, 6.22 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 37% above his 3-year rate last season (0.95 against 0.69).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 29% above last season, 56 to 72.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Marcus FolignoLW · Minnesota Wild96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Michael McCarronC · Minnesota Wild95% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Mark KastelicC,RW · Boston Bruins94% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Panthers93% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mathieu Olivier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.99	14.23	12.69	+12%
5v5 TOI	12.69	13.00	11.66	+12%
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.11	-74%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 22 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.99: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.69: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.04: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.09	6.81	5.84	+17%
G/60	0.88	0.91	0.64	+42%
iSH%	12.46	13.36	10.98	+22%
ixG/60	–	0.95	0.69	+37%
iCF/60	–	13.54	10.47	+29%
iSCF/60	–	8.55	5.99	+43%
iHDCF/60	–	4.92	3.85	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 22 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.95 (91st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.69 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 17% (5v5 SOG/60 6.81 vs 5.84) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.91→1.10 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.35	10.08	8.14	+24%
IPP	56.40	53.90	64.49	-16%
1A/60	0.37	0.38	0.38	-0%
2A/60	0.35	0.30	0.33	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 22 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.1% vs a 8.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.54 vs 10.47) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.92 vs 3.85) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.11	-74%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.54	0.00	2.72	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.41	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 22 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	7.21	7.49	7.39	+1%
Hits/60	15.86	15.58	16.28	-4%
Blks/60	2.93	2.35	3.80	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 22 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (95th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (15.86/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.35/60 (44th pct league-wide) → 2.93 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.83/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.