Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3189 GP · 3y
TOI	12.18	12.62	11.90	12.88	9.10
PP TOI	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.10	0.18
G	9	12	10	14	7
A	10	10	6	14	8
PTS	19	22	16	27	15
PPP	0	1	0	2	0
SOG	94	101	89	113	87
PIM	141	140	123	156	118
Hits	217	215	211	219	216
Blocks	53	64	54	74	44

Sample: 82 GP · 840 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

54Ryan O'Reilly42

55Boone Jenner41

56Logan Cooley40

57Mark Kastelic39

58Anton Lundell38

59Frank Nazar35

60Mikael Granlund34

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

TOI

TOI ran 39% above his 3-year rate last season (12.62 against 9.10).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 25% below last season, 12 to 9.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adam KlapkaRW · Calgary Flames96% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Marcus FolignoLW · Minnesota Wild96% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Tanner JeannotLW,RW · Boston Bruins96% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Mathieu OlivierRW · Columbus Blue Jackets94% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mark Kastelic is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.18	12.62	9.10	+39%
5v5 TOI	9.66	10.25	8.60	+19%
PP TOI	0.08	0.08	0.18	-53%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.18: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.66: role tapered late (Q4 9.3 vs 10.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.08: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.99	5.99	7.24	-17%
G/60	0.64	0.71	0.63	+13%
iSH%	10.64	11.85	8.67	+37%
ixG/60	–	0.98	0.78	+25%
iCF/60	–	13.84	11.75	+18%
iSCF/60	–	7.49	7.20	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	4.64	4.02	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.98 (93rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.78 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 5.99 vs 7.24) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.49	8.71	7.63	+14%
IPP	60.16	58.45	66.60	-12%
1A/60	0.42	0.43	0.34	+28%
2A/60	0.20	0.07	0.30	-76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.7%, IPP 58.5%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.84 vs 11.75) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.64 vs 4.02) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.08	0.08	0.18	-53%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.09	0.00	5.43	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.13	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	9.85	9.70	10.01	-3%
Hits/60	16.36	15.20	18.10	-16%
Blks/60	3.25	3.78	3.54	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (94th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (16.36/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.70/60 and 2nd-half 3.08 below the 3.78 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.25/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.54 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.71/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.