Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3214 GP · 3y
TOI	19.89	20.39	19.51	18.52	19.03
PP TOI	2.84	2.87	2.92	2.82	2.80
G	24	25	28	23	24
A	42	50	52	47	34
PTS	66	75	80	70	58
PPP	20	20	25	16	19
SOG	154	156	171	141	166
PIM	21	22	25	20	22
Hits	18	17	17	18	24
Blocks	67	67	71	63	57

Sample: 81 GP · 1,150 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

51Josh Norris43

52Brayden Schenn42

53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

54Ryan O'Reilly42

55Boone Jenner41

56Logan Cooley40

57Mark Kastelic39

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 65% above his 3-year rate last season (0.78 against 0.47).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 56% above his 3-year rate last season (16.73 against 10.70).

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 49% above where it started (1.43 in the first half, 2.12 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nick SchmaltzC,RW · Utah Mammoth86% match
shared: A, Blocks, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Blues86% match
shared: A, Blocks, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: Blocks, A, PPP
Mikael GranlundC,RW · Anaheim Ducks84% match
shared: Blocks, A, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan O'Reilly is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.89	20.39	19.03	+7%
5v5 TOI	14.10	14.20	13.66	+4%
PP TOI	2.84	2.87	2.80	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.89: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.10: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.84: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.16	5.32	5.77	-8%
G/60	0.75	0.89	0.62	+44%
iSH%	14.44	16.73	10.70	+56%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.74	+15%
iCF/60	–	9.23	9.77	-6%
iSCF/60	–	6.94	7.16	-3%
iHDCF/60	–	4.80	3.78	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.74 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.76→0.93 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.36	10.72	8.69	+23%
IPP	71.71	73.74	62.46	+18%
1A/60	0.66	0.78	0.47	+65%
2A/60	0.57	0.52	0.62	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.7% (3-yr 8.7%) AND IPP 73.7% (3-yr 62.5%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~3%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.80 vs 3.78) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.84	2.87	2.80	+2%
PP iSH%	21.73	16.10	23.31	-31%
PP SOG/60	8.58	8.01	10.31	-22%
PP ixG/60	–	1.78	2.26	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.8 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.72	0.73	0.76	-4%
Hits/60	0.87	0.83	1.05	-21%
Blks/60	2.47	2.40	2.57	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (5th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.40/60 (46th pct league-wide) → 2.47 projected.