Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3224 GP · 3y
TOI	19.65	19.72	18.64	18.98	19.11
PP TOI	3.07	3.18	3.00	3.35	3.18
G	26	33	36	30	23
A	43	41	39	43	43
PTS	69	74	74	73	67
PPP	21	20	25	16	21
SOG	193	204	200	207	175
PIM	18	26	31	21	16
Hits	22	23	27	19	15
Blocks	45	52	49	55	41

Sample: 82 GP · 1,160 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

45Dylan Strome53

46Pierre-Luc Dubois52

47Will Smith49

48Nick Schmaltz49

49Jared McCann49

50Jack McBain45

51Josh Norris43

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 60% below where it started (1.01 in the first half, 0.40 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 36% above his 3-year rate last season (0.76 against 0.56).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 40% above his 3-year rate last season (14.35 against 10.28).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ryan O'ReillyC · Nashville Predators86% match
shared: A, Blocks, PPP
Gabriel VilardiRW · Winnipeg Jets86% match
shared: PPP, A, G
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knights85% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks
Leo CarlssonC · Anaheim Ducks85% match
shared: A, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nick Schmaltz is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year: André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.65	19.72	19.11	+3%
5v5 TOI	14.13	14.15	14.38	-2%
PP TOI	3.07	3.18	3.18	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.65: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.13: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.07: established top role held near 3.2 — the late dip (Q4 3.2) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; Add PP-share risk to Schmaltz's projection; Cooley is favored to keep the role.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.83	6.83	6.00	+14%
G/60	0.87	0.98	0.62	+59%
iSH%	12.80	14.35	10.28	+40%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.56	+36%
iCF/60	–	13.91	12.72	+9%
iSCF/60	–	7.60	6.60	+15%
iHDCF/60	–	3.36	2.38	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.56 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 14% (5v5 SOG/60 6.83 vs 6.00) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.61	12.14	9.60	+27%
IPP	65.17	64.16	70.54	-9%
1A/60	0.66	0.72	0.63	+14%
2A/60	0.63	0.52	0.67	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.1% vs a 9.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.91 vs 12.72) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.36 vs 2.38) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.07	3.18	3.18	+0%
PP iSH%	21.55	22.00	21.55	+2%
PP SOG/60	11.07	11.50	9.78	+18%
PP ixG/60	–	2.33	1.83	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAdd PP-share risk to Schmaltz's projection; Cooley is favored to keep the role. · Veteran movement analysis

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.33 vs 1.83) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.87	1.03	0.67	+53%
Hits/60	0.87	0.93	0.59	+56%
Blks/60	2.05	2.28	1.71	+33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.36/60 and 2nd-half 0.98 vs a 0.93 season rate (0.59 3-yr) (6th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.87/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.81/60 and 2nd-half 2.10 below the 2.28 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.05/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.71 3-yr mark.