Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3181 GP · 3y
TOI	18.52	18.74	17.78	18.11	16.96
PP TOI	3.06	3.08	3.05	3.10	3.01
G	30	30	26	34	33
A	34	38	40	36	30
PTS	64	68	66	70	62
PPP	21	24	27	20	22
SOG	154	149	129	170	167
PIM	22	24	19	29	21
Hits	26	20	19	20	34
Blocks	49	35	34	36	49

Sample: 82 GP · 1,216 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

67Jason Zucker40

68Patrick Kane40

69Mats Zuccarello40

70Gabriel Vilardi39

71Mark Kastelic39

72Lawson Crouse39

73Valeri Nichushkin38

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 40% above last season, 35 to 49.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 41% above where it started (0.48 in the first half, 0.68 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 27 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 44% below his 3-year rate last season (0.99 against 1.77).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nick SchmaltzC,RW · Utah Mammoth86% match
shared: PPP, A, G
Leo CarlssonC · Anaheim Ducks84% match
shared: G, A
Matt DucheneC,RW · Dallas Stars83% match
shared: PPP, A
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsC,LW · Edmonton Oilers83% match
shared: PPP, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Gabriel Vilardi is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.52	18.74	16.96	+10%
5v5 TOI	14.64	14.83	13.50	+10%
PP TOI	3.06	3.08	3.01	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.52: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.64: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.06: established top role held near 3.1 — the late dip (Q4 2.9) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.93	4.93	6.34	-22%
G/60	0.80	0.79	1.03	-23%
iSH%	16.16	16.02	16.26	-1%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.82	-2%
iCF/60	–	9.77	10.83	-10%
iSCF/60	–	7.30	7.49	-3%
iHDCF/60	–	3.85	4.22	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 16.0% sits near the 16.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 22% (5v5 SOG/60 4.93 vs 6.34) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.90 (1st half) to 0.70 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.09	12.23	10.32	+19%
IPP	65.20	64.49	66.07	-2%
1A/60	0.62	0.59	0.64	-7%
2A/60	0.48	0.69	0.35	+99%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.2% vs a 10.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.69 vs 3-yr 0.35) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.06	3.08	3.01	+2%
PP iSH%	27.03	31.69	25.25	+26%
PP SOG/60	9.07	9.75	11.35	-14%
PP ixG/60	–	2.51	2.36	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (31.7% vs 25.2% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.51) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.03	1.09	0.93	+17%
Hits/60	1.30	0.99	1.77	-44%
Blks/60	1.95	1.58	2.50	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (6th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.58/60 (19th pct league-wide) → 1.95 projected.