Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2659 GP	H236 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3216 GP · 3y
TOI	18.16	18.64	18.42	17.50	19.61
PP TOI	3.05	3.63	3.56	3.73	3.73
G	18	21	23	17	20
A	45	54	55	53	50
PTS	63	75	78	71	70
PPP	23	29	36	18	30
SOG	163	169	181	151	198
PIM	29	28	32	21	30
Hits	25	22	13	37	41
Blocks	43	36	41	28	53

Sample: 59 GP · 849 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

66Kyle Palmieri41

67Jason Zucker40

68Patrick Kane40

69Mats Zuccarello40

70Gabriel Vilardi39

71Mark Kastelic39

72Lawson Crouse39

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Power-play time hedged to 3.05 from a projected 3.51. His Minnesota role was genuinely heavy, 3.34 to 4.05 across 4 seasons, and the engine carries it over intact. That assumes a lot for a winger turning 39 who's changing both teams and coaches, with Panarin, Kempe, Byfield and Clarke ahead of him on the projected top unit. 3.05 sits below all 4 of those seasons while still treating him as a power-play regular, which his 5.89 PP points per 60 last season earns. The scoring rates are untouched: the external set is already higher on him than we are, so this is a hedge on the minutes rather than a call on his hands.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 37 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (3.63).

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 34% below his 3-year rate last season (1.63 against 2.46).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knights89% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsC,LW · Edmonton Oilers89% match
shared: PPP, A
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanders85% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mats Zuccarello is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year (MIN, traded): John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.16	18.64	19.61	-5%
5v5 TOI	14.00	14.39	14.78	-3%
PP TOI	3.05	3.63	3.73	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.16: holds last year's role; Discount Zuccarello's 70+ point pace on uncertain deployment and age.
5v5 TOI → 14.00: holds last year's role; Discount Zuccarello's 70+ point pace on uncertain deployment and age.
PP TOI → 3.05: new team, new coach and turning 39; hedges a Minnesota PP1 role carrying over intact

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.60	5.65	5.87	-4%
G/60	0.49	0.49	0.53	-7%
iSH%	8.78	8.67	8.96	-3%
ixG/60	–	0.70	0.53	+33%
iCF/60	–	11.59	11.62	-0%
iSCF/60	–	6.85	5.96	+15%
iHDCF/60	–	2.68	2.21	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.70 (61st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.53 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.54→0.82 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 38 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.76	10.06	8.77	+15%
IPP	72.09	73.74	66.48	+11%
1A/60	0.94	1.06	0.83	+28%
2A/60	0.45	0.64	0.32	+101%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.1%, IPP 73.7%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.68 vs 2.21) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.05	3.63	3.73	-3%
PP iSH%	13.59	18.16	10.27	+77%
PP SOG/60	9.86	9.25	12.29	-25%
PP ixG/60	–	1.43	1.15	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskDiscount Zuccarello's 70+ point pace on uncertain deployment and age. · Veteran movement analysis

RiskPP role projected down: 3.6→3.0 PP TOI/gp (new team, new coach and turning 39; hedges a Minnesota PP1 role carrying over intact) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.43 vs 1.15) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.44	1.27	1.24	+3%
Hits/60	1.03	1.06	1.92	-45%
Blks/60	1.89	1.63	2.46	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.28/60 and 2nd-half 0.51 below the 1.06 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.03/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.92 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.85/60 and 2nd-half 1.64 below the 1.63 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.89/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.46 3-yr mark.