Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2625 GP	H225-26	H125 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	18.31	18.88	–	18.26	17.67
PP TOI	3.30	3.66	–	3.81	2.49
G	25	20	–	22	26
A	27	39	–	42	24
PTS	52	59	–	65	51
PPP	17	16	–	20	13
SOG	201	233	–	246	191
PIM	25	26	–	31	26
Hits	75	62	–	61	82
Blocks	37	29	–	27	39

Sample: 25 GP · 314 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

63Pavol Regenda42

64Emil Heineman41

65Blake Coleman41

66Kyle Palmieri41

67Jason Zucker40

68Patrick Kane40

69Mats Zuccarello40

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 79% above his 3-year rate last season (4.55 against 2.54).

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 47% above his 3-year rate last season (3.66 against 2.49).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 31% below last season, 39 to 27.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 28% above last season, 29 to 37.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Artturi LehkonenLW · Colorado Avalanche91% match
shared: G
Jimmy SnuggerudRW · St. Louis Blues87% match
shared: G, SOG
Jake DeBruskLW,RW · Vancouver Canucks87% match
shared: G, SOG
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: G, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kyle Palmieri is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.31	18.88	17.67	+7%
5v5 TOI	12.52	12.57	13.57	-7%
PP TOI	3.30	3.66	2.49	+47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 4 · 0 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.31: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.52: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.30: reverts toward the 3-yr 2.5

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.56	5.73	7.15	-20%
G/60	0.65	0.57	0.93	-39%
iSH%	11.71	9.95	12.98	-23%
ixG/60	–	0.58	0.84	-31%
iCF/60	–	12.22	14.49	-16%
iSCF/60	–	6.30	8.94	-30%
iHDCF/60	–	2.86	3.72	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 4 · 0 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 9.9% sits near the 13.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.58 (45th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 20% (5v5 SOG/60 5.73 vs 7.15) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.15	7.25	9.63	-25%
IPP	77.47	100.00	62.46	+60%
1A/60	0.40	0.38	0.46	-18%
2A/60	0.58	0.95	0.38	+150%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 4 · 0 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 100.0% vs 62.5% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.95 vs 3-yr 0.38) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.30	3.66	2.49	+47%
PP iSH%	10.18	3.54	14.99	-76%
PP SOG/60	17.55	18.34	13.20	+39%
PP ixG/60	–	4.55	2.54	+79%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 4 · 0 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.7→3.3 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 2.5) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (3.5% vs 15.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.30	1.53	1.13	+35%
Hits/60	3.41	3.25	3.88	-16%
Blks/60	1.69	1.53	1.90	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 4 · 0 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.25/60 (41st pct league-wide) → 3.41 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.36/60 and 2nd-half 1.36 below the 1.53 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.69/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.90 3-yr mark.