Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 362 GP · 1y
TOI	16.48	16.62	15.69	15.56	11.39
PP TOI	1.69	1.73	1.82	1.65	1.03
G	24	22	18	27	13
A	9	9	5	13	11
PTS	33	31	23	39	24
PPP	8	4	4	4	7
SOG	159	173	180	166	85
PIM	25	18	12	23	26
Hits	260	247	220	273	225
Blocks	50	54	50	58	32

Sample: 82 GP · 1,091 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

55Brayden Schenn42

56Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

57Boone Jenner41

58Emil Heineman41

59Blake Coleman41

60Jason Zucker40

61Jeffrey Viel40

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 69% above his 3-year rate last season (1.73 against 1.03).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 5 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 62% above where it started (8.77 in the first half, 14.19 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 58% below his 3-year rate last season (0.16 against 0.38).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken85% match
shared: Hits
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kings83% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth83% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings81% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Emil Heineman is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.48	16.62	11.39	+46%
5v5 TOI	13.29	13.31	10.27	+30%
PP TOI	1.69	1.73	1.03	+69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.48: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.29: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.69: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.04	7.04	4.90	+44%
G/60	0.87	0.82	0.66	+24%
iSH%	12.34	11.65	13.47	-14%
ixG/60	–	0.82	0.60	+37%
iCF/60	–	12.98	13.00	-0%
iSCF/60	–	8.08	6.50	+24%
iHDCF/60	–	2.86	1.60	+79%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 11.6% vs 13.5% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.82 (78th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 12.3%, lifting the goal rate ~6%.

TailwindShot volume up 44% (5v5 SOG/60 7.04 vs 4.90) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.40	6.87	9.38	-27%
IPP	60.32	59.90	61.62	-3%
1A/60	0.25	0.16	0.38	-58%
2A/60	0.18	0.16	0.19	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.9%, IPP 59.9%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.86 vs 1.60) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.69	1.73	1.03	+69%
PP iSH%	26.64	14.82	29.98	-51%
PP SOG/60	13.04	11.40	9.44	+21%
PP ixG/60	–	1.64	1.75	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (14.8% vs 30.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.06	0.88	1.32	-33%
Hits/60	13.50	12.70	15.83	-20%
Blks/60	2.35	2.47	2.26	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 10.84/60 and 2nd-half 11.15 below the 12.70 season rate — projected DOWN to 13.50/60, weighting the recent decline over the 15.83 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.97/60 and 2nd-half 2.23 below the 2.47 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.35/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.26 3-yr mark.