Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2662 GP	H241 GP	H121 GP	Prev 3220 GP · 3y
TOI	15.38	15.62	15.33	15.30	15.19
PP TOI	3.04	3.36	3.40	3.30	2.03
G	25	32	30	35	23
A	25	28	23	37	26
PTS	50	60	54	72	50
PPP	17	21	14	35	15
SOG	166	169	161	185	183
PIM	47	30	26	39	68
Hits	95	75	70	86	135
Blocks	28	28	33	18	25

Sample: 62 GP · 740 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

57Boone Jenner41

58Emil Heineman41

59Blake Coleman41

60Jason Zucker40

61Jeffrey Viel40

62Lawson Crouse39

63Valeri Nichushkin38

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 66% above his 3-year rate last season (3.36 against 2.03).

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 35 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 57% above last season, 30 to 47.

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 46% below where it started (13.59 in the first half, 7.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tyler BertuzziLW,RW · Chicago Blackhawks88% match
shared: PIM, PPP
Porter MartoneRW · Philadelphia Flyers87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Dylan CozensC · Ottawa Senators86% match
shared: PIM, Hits, PPP
Mason MarchmentLW · San Jose Sharks85% match
shared: PIM, Hits, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jason Zucker is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: SOG, A
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.38	15.62	15.19	+3%
5v5 TOI	11.82	11.94	12.75	-6%
PP TOI	3.04	3.36	2.03	+66%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 9 · 24 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.38: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.82: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.04: reverts toward the 3-yr 2.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.31	7.54	8.58	-12%
G/60	0.97	1.13	0.90	+26%
iSH%	13.27	14.99	10.48	+43%
ixG/60	–	1.05	0.98	+7%
iCF/60	–	13.21	15.73	-16%
iSCF/60	–	8.83	8.88	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	5.84	4.86	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 9 · 24 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.05 (96th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.98 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 7.54 vs 8.58) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.91→1.09 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.14	11.11	9.09	+22%
IPP	69.00	73.70	63.87	+15%
1A/60	0.62	0.49	0.64	-24%
2A/60	0.44	0.65	0.32	+104%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 9 · 24 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.1% (3-yr 9.1%) AND IPP 73.7% (3-yr 63.9%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~10%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.84 vs 4.86) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.65 vs 3-yr 0.32) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.04	3.36	2.03	+66%
PP iSH%	27.48	32.25	24.02	+34%
PP SOG/60	8.69	8.93	10.09	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	2.35	2.04	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 9 · 24 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.4→3.0 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 2.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.35 vs 2.04) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.29	1.70	3.57	-52%
Hits/60	5.41	4.62	7.32	-37%
Blks/60	1.65	1.54	1.35	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 9 · 24 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.62/60 (56th pct league-wide) → 5.41 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.12/60 and 2nd-half 1.89 vs a 1.54 season rate (1.35 3-yr) (18th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.65/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.