Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	18.74	18.76	17.68	17.56	18.54
PP TOI	3.01	2.95	2.88	3.02	3.00
G	23	22	27	17	27
A	54	49	45	53	55
PTS	77	71	72	70	82
PPP	23	20	16	24	28
SOG	186	178	161	195	214
PIM	12	12	10	14	12
Hits	68	74	64	84	62
Blocks	32	24	19	29	37

Sample: 82 GP · 1,139 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

45Morgan Geekie64

46Brad Marchand61

47Kiefer Sherwood60

48Jesper Bratt58

49Alex Laferriere57

50Adam Klapka54

51Ryan Hartman54

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (4.03 in the first half, 15.74 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 27 pace in the second half after 17 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 38% below his 3-year rate last season (1.05 against 1.69).

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 20% below his 3-year rate last season (0.84 against 1.05).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Lucas RaymondRW · Detroit Red Wings87% match
shared: A, PPP
Nikolaj EhlersLW,RW · Carolina Hurricanes84% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawks82% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG
Matt DucheneC,RW · Dallas Stars81% match
shared: A, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jesper Bratt is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.74	18.76	18.54	+1%
5v5 TOI	14.05	13.89	13.53	+3%
PP TOI	3.01	2.95	3.00	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.74: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.05: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.01: established top role held near 2.9 — the late dip (Q4 2.5) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; Positive PP regression; raise ceiling toward 90 with Hughes healthy.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.06	7.06	8.24	-14%
G/60	0.70	0.63	0.87	-27%
iSH%	9.86	8.92	10.54	-15%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.89	-19%
iCF/60	–	13.80	15.91	-13%
iSCF/60	–	7.69	9.56	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	3.00	4.16	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.9% sits near the 10.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 7.06 vs 8.24) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.46	7.52	10.00	-25%
IPP	74.10	76.03	71.73	+6%
1A/60	0.94	0.84	1.05	-20%
2A/60	0.47	0.37	0.51	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.5%, IPP 76.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.01	2.95	3.00	-2%
PP iSH%	17.35	21.72	16.12	+35%
PP SOG/60	5.64	5.71	9.64	-41%
PP ixG/60	–	0.95	1.36	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive PP regression; raise ceiling toward 90 with Hughes healthy. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.0 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (21.7% vs 16.1% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.95) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.48	0.53	0.44	+21%
Hits/60	3.24	3.53	2.84	+24%
Blks/60	1.06	1.05	1.69	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.21/60 and 2nd-half 3.14 below the 3.53 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.24/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.84 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.46/60 and 2nd-half 0.80 below the 1.05 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.06/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.69 3-yr mark.