Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2657 GP	H241 GP	H116 GP	Prev 3233 GP · 3y
TOI	16.38	16.51	15.78	14.52	17.37
PP TOI	2.58	2.34	2.72	1.27	2.50
G	24	23	26	13	27
A	43	42	49	18	44
PTS	67	65	75	31	71
PPP	21	20	26	0	20
SOG	144	128	137	118	173
PIM	14	12	12	14	22
Hits	38	42	48	21	30
Blocks	32	33	29	37	33

Sample: 57 GP · 742 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

60Mikael Granlund34

61Dmitri Voronkov33

62Shane Pinto32

63Matt Duchene29

64Elias Lindholm27

65Mason McTavish27

66Charlie Coyle26

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 49 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 75 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 97% above his 3-year rate last season (3.09 against 1.57).

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 33% below his 3-year rate last season (4.28 against 6.36).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Lucas RaymondRW · Detroit Red Wings88% match
shared: A, PPP
Will SmithC,RW · San Jose Sharks85% match
shared: A, PPP
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsC,LW · Edmonton Oilers83% match
shared: A, PPP
Gabriel VilardiRW · Winnipeg Jets83% match
shared: PPP, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matt Duchene is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.38	16.51	17.37	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.84	13.03	13.65	-5%
PP TOI	2.58	2.34	2.50	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 12 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.38: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.84: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.58: same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.8, Q4 3.7) over the full-year 2.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.15	4.28	6.36	-33%
G/60	0.55	0.57	0.85	-33%
iSH%	13.33	13.32	13.34	-0%
ixG/60	–	0.53	0.73	-27%
iCF/60	–	9.29	12.43	-25%
iSCF/60	–	5.41	7.47	-28%
iHDCF/60	–	2.91	3.15	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 12 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 13.3% sits near the 13.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.53 (40th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 33% (5v5 SOG/60 4.28 vs 6.36) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.65 (1st half) to 0.52 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.30	12.55	10.35	+21%
IPP	61.22	54.42	73.25	-26%
1A/60	0.80	0.81	0.77	+5%
2A/60	0.50	0.16	0.64	-75%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 12 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.5% vs a 10.4% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.58	2.34	2.50	-7%
PP iSH%	17.51	16.65	18.13	-8%
PP SOG/60	12.83	13.51	10.80	+25%
PP ixG/60	–	3.09	1.57	+97%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 12 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.3→2.6 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.8, Q4 3.7) over the full-year 2.3) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.09 vs 1.57) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.60	0.65	0.98	-34%
Hits/60	2.34	2.34	1.47	+59%
Blks/60	1.68	1.70	1.66	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 12 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.07/60 and 2nd-half 2.83 vs a 2.34 season rate (1.47 3-yr) (29th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.34/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.70/60 (23rd pct league-wide) → 1.68 projected.