Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2669 GP	H236 GP	H133 GP	Prev 374 GP · 1y
TOI	18.48	18.18	17.86	16.90	15.85
PP TOI	3.30	3.30	3.09	3.53	2.03
G	▲32	29	29	29	20
A	▲42	41	41	42	30
PTS	▲74	70	70	70	50
PPP	23	20	21	20	13
SOG	197	197	200	195	141
PIM	18	19	9	30	20
Hits	19	19	20	19	14
Blocks	15	14	11	17	18

Sample: 69 GP · 966 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

44Robert Thomas53

45Dylan Strome53

46Pierre-Luc Dubois52

47Will Smith49

48Nick Schmaltz49

49Jared McCann49

50Jack McBain45

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Tempered (A1.18/G1.12 -> 1.08/1.05). Raw engine ~69 already matches Fantrax; the 70+ ceiling mults over-stacked. Keeps a modest Celebrini-pairing boost to ~73.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSupport Smith's baseline via Celebrini linemate quality. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindBoost toward a top-line 70-point sophomore line. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 63% above his 3-year rate last season (3.30 against 2.03).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 30 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 68% above his 3-year rate last season (1.83 against 1.09).

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 44% above where it started (0.76 in the first half, 1.08 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Troy TerryRW · Anaheim Ducks87% match
shared: A
Luke EvangelistaRW · Nashville Predators86% match
shared: A
Matt DucheneC,RW · Dallas Stars85% match
shared: A, PPP
JJ PeterkaLW,RW · Boston Bruins85% match
shared: PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Will Smith is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.48	18.18	15.85	+15%
5v5 TOI	14.77	14.00	12.95	+8%
PP TOI	3.30	3.30	2.03	+63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 15 · 21

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.48: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 14.77: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 14.6, Q4 15.0) over the full-year 14.0; age 21 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.30: established top role held near 3.3 — the late dip (Q4 2.7) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; age 21 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.10	6.89	6.14	+12%
G/60	0.92	0.93	0.75	+24%
iSH%	13.01	13.50	12.21	+11%
ixG/60	–	0.67	0.54	+24%
iCF/60	–	13.85	12.59	+10%
iSCF/60	–	8.20	6.51	+26%
iHDCF/60	–	2.61	1.88	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 15 · 21

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.67 (57th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.54 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 12% (5v5 SOG/60 6.89 vs 6.14) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.03	11.28	10.20	+11%
IPP	72.92	73.95	69.44	+6%
1A/60	0.99	0.99	1.00	-1%
2A/60	0.29	0.37	0.25	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 15 · 21

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.3%, IPP 74.0%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.85 vs 12.59) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.61 vs 1.88) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.30	3.30	2.03	+63%
PP iSH%	21.27	16.03	25.06	-36%
PP SOG/60	12.54	13.16	7.98	+65%
PP ixG/60	–	1.83	1.09	+68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 15 · 21

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (16.0% vs 25.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.43	0.50	0.75	-33%
Hits/60	0.88	0.93	0.81	+15%
Blks/60	0.62	0.68	0.75	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 15 · 21

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (6th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.57/60 and 2nd-half 0.42 below the 0.68 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.62/60, weighting the recent decline over the 0.75 3-yr mark.