Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2629 GP	H223 GP	H16 GP	Prev 3237 GP · 3y
TOI	16.89	16.82	15.92	14.46	17.10
PP TOI	2.37	2.29	2.38	1.94	2.58
G	20	14	18	-0	22
A	37	40	48	6	37
PTS	57	54	66	6	59
PPP	15	17	21	0	16
SOG	155	119	116	129	171
PIM	66	26	25	27	77
Hits	76	65	63	74	80
Blocks	50	37	37	36	49

Sample: 29 GP · 381 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

43Nazem Kadri54

44Robert Thomas53

45Dylan Strome53

46Pierre-Luc Dubois52

47Will Smith49

48Nick Schmaltz49

49Jared McCann49

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 150% above last season, 26 to 66.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (5.16 in the first half, 12.92 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 43% above last season, 14 to 20.

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 36% above where it started (1.62 in the first half, 2.20 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jonathan HuberdeauLW · Calgary Flames90% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Stars89% match
shared: PIM
Josh NorrisC · Buffalo Sabres88% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, A
Mason MarchmentLW · San Jose Sharks83% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Pierre-Luc Dubois is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jake DeBruskLW,RW · Vancouver Canuckscovers 3
fills: G, SOG, PPP
Owen TippettLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: SOG, Hits, G
Cole CaufieldLW · Montreal Canadienscovers 3
fills: G, SOG, PPP
Rickard RakellLW,RW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: G, SOG, Hits, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.89	16.82	17.10	-2%
5v5 TOI	13.29	13.14	13.58	-3%
PP TOI	2.37	2.29	2.58	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.89: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.29: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.37: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.70	4.57	6.21	-26%
G/60	0.40	0.31	0.61	-49%
iSH%	8.58	6.78	9.88	-31%
ixG/60	–	0.61	0.82	-26%
iCF/60	–	9.92	12.77	-22%
iSCF/60	–	5.98	8.28	-28%
iHDCF/60	–	2.52	4.12	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 6.8% sits near the 9.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.61 (48th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 4.57 vs 6.21) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.58	10.85	10.24	+6%
IPP	61.11	57.86	65.07	-11%
1A/60	0.76	0.63	0.80	-21%
2A/60	0.65	0.79	0.56	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.9%, IPP 57.9%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.79 vs 3-yr 0.56) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.37	2.29	2.58	-11%
PP iSH%	18.90	27.29	16.53	+65%
PP SOG/60	11.15	9.93	13.08	-24%
PP ixG/60	–	2.20	2.63	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.4 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (27.3% vs 16.5% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.20) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.92	1.42	3.65	-61%
Hits/60	3.68	3.31	4.04	-18%
Blks/60	2.05	1.57	2.52	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.31/60 (42nd pct league-wide) → 3.68 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.57/60 (18th pct league-wide) → 2.05 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.16/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.