Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2660 GP	H238 GP	H122 GP	Prev 3244 GP · 3y
TOI	13.22	13.29	12.96	12.65	15.40
PP TOI	1.72	1.49	1.85	0.88	2.52
G	17	21	19	26	24
A	31	29	29	27	39
PTS	48	49	47	53	63
PPP	12	8	13	0	21
SOG	109	98	81	128	165
PIM	58	72	82	53	49
Hits	97	108	95	117	108
Blocks	37	31	36	26	43

Sample: 60 GP · 676 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

81JJ Peterka23

82Viktor Arvidsson22

83Liam O'Brien22

84Jamie Benn21

85Pavel Buchnevich20

86Chris Kreider20

87Ivan Barbashev19

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 109% above where it started (0.88 in the first half, 1.85 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 50% above last season, 8 to 12.

Second-half fade

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 50% below where it started (1.15 in the first half, 0.57 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 62% below his 3-year rate last season (4.68 against 12.18).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitals89% match
shared: PIM
Mason MarchmentLW · San Jose Sharks88% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Brayden SchennC,LW · New York Islanders87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Mason McTavishC · St. Louis Blues86% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jamie Benn is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 3
fills: SOG, G, PPP
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, G
Cole CaufieldLW · Montreal Canadienscovers 3
fills: G, SOG, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.22	13.29	15.40	-14%
5v5 TOI	11.04	11.27	11.28	-0%
PP TOI	1.72	1.49	2.52	-41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 20 · 19 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.22: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.04: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.72: same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.8, Q4 2.3) over the full-year 1.5

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.17	5.68	7.44	-24%
G/60	0.80	1.06	0.98	+8%
iSH%	15.48	18.66	13.18	+42%
ixG/60	–	0.78	0.84	-7%
iCF/60	–	9.32	13.65	-32%
iSCF/60	–	6.83	7.59	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	4.08	4.06	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 20 · 19 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 18.7% vs a 13.2% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.78 (73rd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 15.5% pulls the goal rate ~24% down.

RiskShot volume down 24% (5v5 SOG/60 5.68 vs 7.44) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.15 (1st half) to 0.57 (2nd).

RiskAge 37 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.68	12.94	10.82	+20%
IPP	76.90	79.47	73.73	+8%
1A/60	0.76	0.71	0.79	-10%
2A/60	0.60	0.62	0.63	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 20 · 19 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.9% vs a 10.8% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.72	1.49	2.52	-41%
PP iSH%	19.40	28.63	16.80	+70%
PP SOG/60	6.56	4.68	12.18	-62%
PP ixG/60	–	1.07	2.33	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 20 · 19 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.5→1.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.8, Q4 2.3) over the full-year 1.5) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (28.6% vs 16.8% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.07) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.08	4.35	2.42	+80%
Hits/60	6.30	6.83	6.52	+5%
Blks/60	2.23	1.86	2.20	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 20 · 19 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 5.97/60 and 2nd-half 6.12 below the 6.83 season rate — projected DOWN to 6.30/60, weighting the recent decline over the 6.52 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.13/60 and 2nd-half 2.28 vs a 1.86 season rate (2.20 3-yr) (28th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.23/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.27/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.