Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2669 GP	H239 GP	H130 GP	Prev 3144 GP · 2y
TOI	14.58	14.60	14.01	13.74	16.12
PP TOI	1.88	2.01	1.90	2.15	1.72
G	24	30	35	23	23
A	27	35	40	27	26
PTS	51	64	75	50	49
PPP	13	11	11	11	16
SOG	201	208	213	202	220
PIM	26	29	19	41	27
Hits	27	29	29	29	32
Blocks	33	43	43	43	30

Sample: 69 GP · 820 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

79Yakov Trenin24

80Anthony Mantha23

81JJ Peterka23

82Viktor Arvidsson22

83Liam O'Brien22

84Jamie Benn21

85Pavel Buchnevich20

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 80% above where it started (0.64 in the first half, 1.14 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 76% above his 3-year rate last season (13.07 against 7.41).

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 57% above where it started (0.81 in the first half, 1.28 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 23% below last season, 43 to 33.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matt CoronatoRW · Calgary Flames88% match
shared: SOG
Jackson BlakeRW · Carolina Hurricanes86% match
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken86% match
Artturi LehkonenLW · Colorado Avalanche84% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Viktor Arvidsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year (BOS, traded): Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.58	14.60	16.12	-9%
5v5 TOI	11.99	11.88	13.56	-12%
PP TOI	1.88	2.01	1.72	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.58: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.99: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.88: role tapered late (Q4 1.8 vs 2.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.80	10.10	9.53	+6%
G/60	1.07	1.32	0.71	+87%
iSH%	10.92	13.07	7.41	+76%
ixG/60	–	1.09	0.83	+32%
iCF/60	–	21.58	18.10	+19%
iSCF/60	–	10.46	9.47	+11%
iHDCF/60	–	4.76	2.98	+60%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.09 (98th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.83 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.81→1.28 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	12.70	14.02	6.67	+110%
IPP	75.32	77.72	64.38	+21%
1A/60	0.70	0.88	0.55	+59%
2A/60	0.43	0.88	0.18	+380%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 14.0% (3-yr 6.7%) AND IPP 77.7% (3-yr 64.4%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~9%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 21.58 vs 18.10) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.76 vs 2.98) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.88 vs 3-yr 0.18) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.88	2.01	1.72	+17%
PP iSH%	17.86	15.38	19.65	-22%
PP SOG/60	11.54	11.25	13.58	-17%
PP ixG/60	–	2.23	2.18	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.9 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.07	1.17	1.35	-13%
Hits/60	1.58	1.68	1.63	+3%
Blks/60	1.95	2.34	1.36	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.68/60 (19th pct league-wide) → 1.58 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.34/60 (44th pct league-wide) → 1.95 projected.