Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 380 GP · 1y
TOI	17.20	16.50	15.26	16.20	13.85
PP TOI	2.20	2.16	1.58	2.73	2.10
G	▲24	22	21	23	17
A	▲33	31	36	27	17
PTS	▲57	54	57	50	35
PPP	10	12	10	14	7
SOG	181	176	185	167	147
PIM	34	41	25	56	31
Hits	13	13	8	18	19
Blocks	43	34	42	27	31

Sample: 81 GP · 1,095 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

88Yakov Trenin24

89Anthony Mantha23

90JJ Peterka23

91Jackson Blake23

92Viktor Arvidsson22

93Easton Cowan22

94Jacob Melanson22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Playoff 'demon line' riser; 50-60 pt range. Role rebalanced: PP TOI capped at 2.2 (H2 ~1.58, playoff 2:36) but EV minutes bumped to 14.9 on rising Q4/playoff usage. Brind'Amour deployment caps the top-end PP share.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 42 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 42% below where it started (2.72 in the first half, 1.59 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.71).

Above his 3-year rate

TOI

TOI ran 19% above his 3-year rate last season (16.50 against 13.85).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken86% match
Matt CoronatoRW · Calgary Flames86% match
Viktor ArvidssonLW,RW · Detroit Red Wings86% match
Pavel BuchnevichC,LW,RW · St. Louis Blues85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jackson Blake is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Dylan CozensC · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
Vincent TrocheckC · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
J.T. MillerC,LW,RW · New York Rangerscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.20	16.50	13.85	+19%
5v5 TOI	14.80	13.53	11.41	+19%
PP TOI	2.20	2.16	2.10	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.20: headline TOI boosted toward his 17:53 playoff all-TOI, hedged under it - reflects the rising role while the PP share is capped.
5v5 TOI → 14.80: display coherence with the EV bump (5v5 is the bulk of the boosted even-strength minutes).
PP TOI → 2.20: PP1 candidate, but 2.7 was too high: the 2.16 full-season mark was inflated by a spike Q2 (3.27); H2 PP TOI ran ~1.58 (Q3 1.50, Q4 1.68) and 2:36 in the playoffs. Hedged up from the H2 floor toward the playoff mark, capped at Phil's 2:20 ceiling.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.38	7.01	6.44	+9%
G/60	0.85	0.77	0.79	-3%
iSH%	11.47	10.98	12.27	-10%
ixG/60	–	1.09	1.03	+6%
iCF/60	–	14.56	12.16	+20%
iSCF/60	–	10.18	8.55	+19%
iHDCF/60	–	5.15	4.80	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.09 (98th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 1.03 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.93→1.28 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.36	8.73	7.74	+13%
IPP	67.86	67.54	68.40	-1%
1A/60	0.66	0.66	0.66	+0%
2A/60	0.30	0.38	0.26	+46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.7%, IPP 67.5%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 14.56 vs 12.16) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.20	2.16	2.10	+3%
PP iSH%	12.42	9.70	13.19	-26%
PP SOG/60	9.28	10.62	13.57	-22%
PP ixG/60	–	1.92	2.60	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindNudge up toward a top-six/PP1 breakout line. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~2.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.50	1.86	1.71	+9%
Hits/60	0.68	0.71	1.18	-40%
Blks/60	2.14	1.81	1.78	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.24/60 and 2nd-half 0.43 below the 0.71 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.68/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.18 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.59/60 and 2nd-half 2.23 vs a 1.81 season rate (1.78 3-yr) (25th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.14/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.