Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2666 GP	H236 GP	H130 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	15.53	14.71	14.36	13.99	–
PP TOI	1.69	1.56	1.48	1.65	–
G	15	14	15	12	–
A	26	22	25	19	–
PTS	41	36	40	31	–
PPP	9	7	14	0	–
SOG	128	116	100	135	–
PIM	71	56	93	11	–
Hits	94	88	89	88	–
Blocks	42	40	37	44	–

Sample: 66 GP · 833 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

68Michael McCarron24

69William Karlsson23

70Anthony Cirelli23

71Easton Cowan22

72Pavel Buchnevich20

73Ridly Greig19

74John Hayden18

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 60% below where it started (0.86 in the first half, 0.34 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 29% above last season, 7 to 9.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 19 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 27% above last season, 56 to 71.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings93% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Ridly GreigC,LW,RW · Ottawa Senators88% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Josh AndersonLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens87% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Easton Cowan is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 4
fills: SOG, G, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	15.53	14.71	n/a
5v5 TOI	13.79	12.62	n/a
PP TOI	1.69	1.56	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 17 · 18 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.53: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 13.79: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 13.6 role discounted until the new staff sets usage; one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.69: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 1.7 role discounted until the new staff sets usage; one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.76	5.69	n/a
G/60	0.59	0.58	n/a
iSH%	10.19	10.19	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.53	n/a
iCF/60	–	11.23	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.47	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	2.09	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 17 · 18 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.62 (1st half) to 0.47 (2nd).

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 21 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +8% and role +6% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.72	9.72	n/a
IPP	60.50	60.50	n/a
1A/60	0.58	0.58	n/a
2A/60	0.29	0.29	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 17 · 18 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 60.5%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.69	1.56	n/a
PP iSH%	22.24	22.24	n/a
PP SOG/60	5.31	5.26	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.16	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 17 · 18 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.6→1.7 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 1.7 role discounted until the new staff sets usage; one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	4.12	3.10	n/a
Hits/60	5.11	5.11	n/a
Blks/60	2.23	2.23	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 17 · 18 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.11/60 (61st pct league-wide) → 5.11 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.23/60 (39th pct league-wide) → 2.23 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.