Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H239 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3176 GP · 3y
TOI	13.78	14.03	13.73	13.65	12.78
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.15	0.04	0.06
G	9	8	13	4	9
A	9	9	5	13	10
PTS	18	18	18	18	19
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	107	113	114	112	99
PIM	99	96	78	115	105
Hits	194	213	202	224	170
Blocks	72	80	83	77	61

Sample: 79 GP · 891 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

65Mason McTavish27

66Charlie Coyle26

67Max Domi25

68Michael McCarron24

69William Karlsson23

70Anthony Cirelli23

71Easton Cowan22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 5 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 59% below where it started (0.40 in the first half, 0.16 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 31% below his 3-year rate last season (5.83 against 8.49).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 12% above last season, 8 to 9.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

John HaydenC · Seattle Kraken96% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Mathieu OlivierRW · Columbus Blue Jackets95% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Marcus FolignoLW · Minnesota Wild94% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Panthers94% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Michael McCarron is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year (NSH, traded): John Hynes MIN · pre-trade → Andrew Brunette NSH · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.78	14.03	12.78	+10%
5v5 TOI	11.04	11.29	10.74	+5%
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.06	+63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.78: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.04: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.13: same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.2) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.86	6.86	6.38	+8%
G/60	0.47	0.40	0.54	-26%
iSH%	6.84	5.83	8.49	-31%
ixG/60	–	0.93	0.81	+15%
iCF/60	–	12.78	12.28	+4%
iSCF/60	–	6.66	7.43	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	4.71	3.97	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 5.8% vs 8.5% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.93 (89th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.8%, lifting the goal rate ~17%.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.76→1.11 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	5.98	5.47	7.12	-23%
IPP	63.70	69.63	57.47	+21%
1A/60	0.29	0.27	0.31	-14%
2A/60	0.26	0.27	0.22	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 69.6% vs 57.5% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.71 vs 3.97) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.06	+63%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	5.92	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.19	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.2) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	6.06	5.99	6.60	-9%
Hits/60	12.44	13.32	11.36	+17%
Blks/60	3.80	4.04	3.49	+16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 10.75/60 and 2nd-half 12.34 below the 13.32 season rate — projected DOWN to 12.44/60, weighting the recent decline over the 11.36 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.84/60 and 2nd-half 4.06 below the 4.04 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.49 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.47/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.