🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

William Karlsson

VGK · Age 33.6 · 🇸🇪 Sweden · 6′0″, 190 lb · Draft 2011, 53rd overall (ANA)
VGKteam
Cposition
69position rank
223skater rank
23overall
2offense
21peripherals
goals
21
assists
32
points
53
power play points
10
shots on goal
182
penalty minutes
18
hits
35
blocked shots
66

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-26thinH225-26H114 GPPrev 3205 GP · 3y
TOI17.40––12.7317.40
PP TOI1.92––1.001.92
G21–––21
A32–––36
PTS53–––57
PPP10–––12
SOG182–––182
PIM18–––14
Hits35–––45
Blocks66–––50

Sample: 14 GP · 164 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)
66Charlie Coyle26
67Max Domi25
68Michael McCarron24
69William Karlsson23
70Anthony Cirelli23
71Easton Cowan22
72Pavel Buchnevich20
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)
TailwindHold/nudge an elite 90-point playmaker line; buy-low on lingering narrative. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Forward
Same position, opposite profile — strong where William Karlsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice
Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI17.40n/a17.40
5v5 TOI12.86n/a12.86
PP TOI1.92n/a1.92
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  14 · 0 · 0 · 0
TOI*
3-yr 17.4012.73Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
3-yr 12.8611.74Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP TOI
3-yr 1.921.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
17.4022-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
12.8622-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
1.9222-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/607.52n/a7.65
G/600.74n/a0.75
iSH%9.86n/a9.86
ixG/60–n/a0.78
iCF/60–n/a14.14
iSCF/60–n/a7.56
iHDCF/60–n/a3.46
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  14 · 0 · 0 · 0
SOG/60
3-yr 7.658.76Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 9.864.22Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.780.70Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 14.1414.97Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 7.566.21Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 3.463.65Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
8.5622-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
5.9622-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.7322-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
16.8822-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
6.5322-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
3.1422-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
2122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
18222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%8.52n/a8.52
IPP72.43n/a72.43
1A/600.68n/a0.66
2A/600.49n/a0.57
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  14 · 0 · 0 · 0
1A/60
3-yr 0.660.37Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.570.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.7622-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.3422-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
3222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
5322-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.5%, IPP 72.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI1.92n/a1.92
PP iSH%11.84n/a11.84
PP SOG/6010.91n/a11.58
PP ixG/60–n/a2.19
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  14 · 0 · 0 · 0
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 1.921.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 11.588.60Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 2.190.89Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
1.4222-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
7.9822-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
1.2922-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
1022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
322-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
722-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/600.62n/a0.46
Hits/601.64n/a2.14
Blks/602.73n/a2.07
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  14 · 0 · 0 · 0
PIMs/60
3-yr 0.461.46Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 2.141.10Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 2.073.65Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
0.3422-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
1.3622-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
2.6322-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
1822-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
3522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
6622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.10/60 and 2nd-half 1.10 below the 2.14 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.64/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.14 3-yr mark.
TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.65/60 and 2nd-half 3.65 vs a 2.07 season rate (2.07 3-yr) (34th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.73/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.