Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2671 GP	H234 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3217 GP · 3y
TOI	17.41	17.32	15.59	16.66	18.06
PP TOI	1.00	1.23	0.73	1.68	1.16
G	23	27	25	28	22
A	30	34	38	29	28
PTS	53	60	63	57	50
PPP	5	5	2	7	6
SOG	144	144	128	160	151
PIM	44	55	84	29	37
Hits	52	58	59	57	47
Blocks	68	54	63	46	74

Sample: 71 GP · 872 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

67Max Domi25

68Michael McCarron24

69William Karlsson23

70Anthony Cirelli23

71Easton Cowan22

72Pavel Buchnevich20

73Ridly Greig19

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 84 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 2 pace in the second half after 7 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 63% above his 3-year rate last season (17.02 against 10.43).

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 39% above his 3-year rate last season (1.09 against 0.78).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Frank NazarC,RW · Chicago Blackhawks88% match
shared: Blocks
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues85% match
shared: Blocks
Shane PintoC · Ottawa Senators83% match
shared: Blocks
Tyson FoersterLW · Philadelphia Flyers82% match
shared: Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Anthony Cirelli is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, Hits
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: Hits, SOG
Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangerscovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.41	17.32	18.06	-4%
5v5 TOI	12.62	12.29	13.69	-10%
PP TOI	1.00	1.23	1.16	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 17 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.41: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.62: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.00: role tapered late (Q4 0.9 vs 1.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.95	6.05	6.21	-3%
G/60	0.86	1.03	0.65	+59%
iSH%	14.52	17.02	10.43	+63%
ixG/60	–	1.09	0.78	+39%
iCF/60	–	11.42	11.42	+0%
iSCF/60	–	8.46	7.51	+13%
iHDCF/60	–	5.23	4.20	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 17 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.09 (98th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.78 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.22 (1st half) to 0.92 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.35	12.48	9.80	+27%
IPP	55.96	54.96	58.13	-5%
1A/60	0.53	0.55	0.52	+5%
2A/60	0.60	0.69	0.50	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 17 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.5% vs a 9.8% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.23 vs 4.20) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.69 vs 3-yr 0.50) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.00	1.23	1.16	+6%
PP iSH%	31.23	29.94	32.16	-7%
PP SOG/60	7.25	6.88	6.69	+3%
PP ixG/60	–	1.75	1.33	+32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 17 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.2→1.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.9 vs 1.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.75 vs 1.33) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.95	2.89	1.43	+101%
Hits/60	2.67	2.96	2.24	+32%
Blks/60	2.27	1.86	2.88	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 17 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.96/60 (38th pct league-wide) → 2.67 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.89/60 and 2nd-half 2.50 vs a 1.86 season rate (2.88 3-yr) (28th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.27/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.14/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.