Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H236 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3162 GP · 2y
TOI	16.84	16.91	15.93	16.35	16.40
PP TOI	1.59	1.62	1.59	1.64	1.48
G	20	15	18	12	22
A	31	34	35	33	23
PTS	51	49	53	44	45
PPP	8	5	7	4	8
SOG	154	149	137	159	158
PIM	43	31	38	26	42
Hits	45	47	52	43	43
Blocks	42	47	48	46	38

Sample: 78 GP · 974 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

72Pavel Buchnevich20

73Ridly Greig19

74John Hayden18

75Connor McMichael16

76Morgan Frost16

77Matty Beniers16

78Anton Frondell15

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 120% above where it started (6.40 in the first half, 14.07 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 134% above his 3-year rate last season (1.05 against 0.45).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 26% above his 3-year rate last season (2.34 against 1.85).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes92% match
Anthony ManthaLW,RW · New Jersey Devils90% match
Frank NazarC,RW · Chicago Blackhawks88% match
shared: Blocks
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken87% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Connor McMichael is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP
Drake BathersonLW,RW · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Dylan CozensC · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: Hits, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year (WSH, traded): Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.84	16.91	16.40	+3%
5v5 TOI	12.45	12.49	13.16	-5%
PP TOI	1.59	1.62	1.48	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 18 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.84: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.45: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.59: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.47	6.47	7.12	-9%
G/60	0.78	0.62	0.98	-37%
iSH%	12.04	9.58	13.83	-31%
ixG/60	–	0.86	0.95	-9%
iCF/60	–	11.33	13.42	-16%
iSCF/60	–	7.14	8.64	-17%
iHDCF/60	–	4.13	4.47	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 18 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 9.6% sits near the 13.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.86 (83rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.87	11.15	10.01	+11%
IPP	73.51	75.00	69.00	+9%
1A/60	0.79	1.05	0.45	+134%
2A/60	0.56	0.55	0.45	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 18 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.2%, IPP 75.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.59	1.62	1.48	+10%
PP iSH%	14.31	10.52	15.37	-32%
PP SOG/60	9.18	9.03	9.78	-8%
PP ixG/60	–	2.03	2.10	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 18 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.6 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.74	1.35	1.63	-17%
Hits/60	2.44	2.52	2.19	+15%
Blks/60	2.25	2.34	1.85	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 18 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.73/60 and 2nd-half 2.85 vs a 2.52 season rate (2.19 3-yr) (31st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.44/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.27/60 and 2nd-half 2.45 vs a 2.34 season rate (1.85 3-yr) (44th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.25/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.