Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-26thin	H225-26	H125-26	Prev 3208 GP · 3y
TOI	20.36	–	–	–	20.36
PP TOI	3.63	–	–	–	3.63
G	25	–	–	–	26
A	64	–	–	–	64
PTS	89	–	–	–	90
PPP	34	–	–	–	34
SOG	▼206	–	–	–	217
PIM	▲20	–	–	–	19
Hits	▲102	–	–	–	96
Blocks	▲60	–	–	–	58

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

9Jack Eichel120

10Wyatt Johnston118

11Nick Suzuki114

12Aleksander Barkov113

13Dylan Larkin107

14J.T. Miller102

15Adam Fantilli102

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Missed all of 2025-26 (torn ACL) so no baseline line; projected off 2024-25 and earlier (per-82). Maurice may split EV minutes to preserve health, but that's a GP/availability risk, not a per-82 rate cut. Brain: 90-point threat.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextRestore near-elite baseline with a mild TOI-preservation discount. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindBoost top-line stars' TOI-driven baseline; discount depth-center scoring. · Fantasy coaching primer

TailwindTreat Celebrini as an ascending elite ceiling, not a floor play; draft-strategy context. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangers88% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks, SOG
Nick SuzukiC · Montreal Canadiens87% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks
Sam ReinhartRW · Florida Panthers80% match
shared: PPP, Blocks, A, SOG
Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knights79% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Aleksander Barkov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	20.36	n/a	20.36
5v5 TOI	13.34	n/a	13.34
PP TOI	3.63	n/a	3.63

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 0 · 0

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.36: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role
5v5 TOI → 13.34: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role
PP TOI → 3.63: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	7.07	n/a	7.07
G/60	0.69	n/a	0.69
iSH%	9.79	n/a	9.79
ixG/60	–	n/a	0.81
iCF/60	–	n/a	13.38
iSCF/60	–	n/a	8.39
iHDCF/60	–	n/a	3.82

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 0 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.31	n/a	9.31
IPP	72.82	n/a	72.82
1A/60	1.03	n/a	1.02
2A/60	0.59	n/a	0.61

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 0 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.3%, IPP 72.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	3.63	n/a	3.63
PP iSH%	14.10	n/a	14.10
PP SOG/60	12.40	n/a	12.40
PP ixG/60	–	n/a	1.49

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 0 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	0.95	n/a	0.95
Hits/60	4.69	n/a	4.69
Blks/60	2.18	n/a	2.18

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 0 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.69/60 (57th pct league-wide) → 4.69 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.18/60 (38th pct league-wide) → 2.18 projected.