Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2674 GP	H231 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3230 GP · 3y
TOI	20.15	20.19	18.24	19.19	19.92
PP TOI	3.22	3.26	3.00	3.46	3.27
G	36	38	36	39	34
A	39	37	40	35	44
PTS	75	74	76	74	78
PPP	30	27	37	19	30
SOG	252	252	263	244	249
PIM	49	53	47	58	44
Hits	63	51	66	40	48
Blocks	31	37	26	44	32

Sample: 74 GP · 1,036 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

10Wyatt Johnston118

11Nick Suzuki114

12Aleksander Barkov113

13Dylan Larkin107

14J.T. Miller102

15Adam Fantilli102

16Tim Stützle100

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 37 pace in the second half after 19 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 88% below where it started (10.96 in the first half, 1.32 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawks90% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Jake GuentzelLW,RW · Tampa Bay Lightning89% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Kirill KaprizovLW · Minnesota Wild87% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Sidney CrosbyC · Pittsburgh Penguins87% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dylan Larkin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.15	20.19	19.92	+1%
5v5 TOI	13.87	14.00	13.82	+1%
PP TOI	3.22	3.26	3.27	-0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 11

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.15: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.87: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.22: established top role held near 3.3 — the late dip (Q4 2.8) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.12	7.12	7.70	-8%
G/60	0.55	0.52	0.66	-21%
iSH%	7.79	7.30	8.59	-15%
ixG/60	–	0.75	0.69	+8%
iCF/60	–	15.23	15.82	-4%
iSCF/60	–	7.18	7.21	-0%
iHDCF/60	–	2.72	2.53	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 11

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 7.3% vs 8.6% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.75 (68th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 7.8%, lifting the goal rate ~7%.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.85 (1st half) to 0.52 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.67	8.10	9.46	-14%
IPP	65.89	67.76	63.28	+7%
1A/60	0.71	0.64	0.85	-25%
2A/60	0.29	0.29	0.30	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 11

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.1%, IPP 67.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.22	3.26	3.27	-0%
PP iSH%	21.78	21.56	21.93	-2%
PP SOG/60	17.00	16.14	15.64	+3%
PP ixG/60	–	3.70	2.72	+36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 11

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.70 vs 2.72) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.29	1.27	1.78	-29%
Hits/60	3.31	2.66	2.29	+16%
Blks/60	1.21	1.51	1.28	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 11

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.72/60 and 2nd-half 3.79 vs a 2.66 season rate (2.29 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.31/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.79/60 and 2nd-half 0.95 below the 1.51 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.21/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.28 3-yr mark.