🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Michael Pezzetta

TOR · Age 28.4 · 🇨🇦 Canada · 6′1″, 210 lb · Draft 2016, 160th overall (MTL)
TORteam
LW,RWposition
90position rank
246skater rank
19overall
-57offense
75peripherals
goals
4
assists
8
points
12
power play points
1
shots on goal
59
penalty minutes
108
hits
309
blocked shots
34

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-26thinH29 GPH125-26Prev 3149 GP · 3y
TOI8.13–6.46–8.13
PP TOI0.03–0.06–0.03
G4–––6
A8–––9
PTS12–––15
PPP1–––1
SOG59–––69
PIM108–––88
Hits309–––305
Blocks34–––34

Sample: 9 GP · 57 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)
87Ivan Barbashev19
88Ridly Greig19
89Jonah Gadjovich19
90Michael Pezzetta19
91Tyler Toffoli18
92Dakota Joshua17
93Mackie Samoskevich17
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Forward
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Michael Pezzetta is weak or average, light where he’s strong
  • Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
    fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
  • Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
    fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
  • Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
    fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
  • William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
    fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice
Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI8.13n/a8.13
5v5 TOI7.81n/a7.81
PP TOI0.03n/a0.03
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 0 · 9
TOI*
3-yr 8.136.46Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
3-yr 7.816.40Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP TOI
3-yr 0.030.06Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
8.1322-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
7.8122-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.0322-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/604.72n/a6.34
G/600.38n/a0.52
iSH%8.14n/a8.14
ixG/60–n/a0.59
iCF/60–n/a12.11
iSCF/60–n/a6.08
iHDCF/60–n/a2.88
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 0 · 9
SOG/60
3-yr 6.342.08Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 8.140.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.590.25Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 12.114.17Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 6.082.08Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 2.882.08Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
5.6722-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.7222-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
12.5522-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
6.4822-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
3.2422-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
5922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%10.91n/a10.91
IPP52.12n/a52.12
1A/600.59n/a0.67
2A/600.15n/a0.16
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 0 · 9
1A/60
3-yr 0.670.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.160.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
822-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
1222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.9%, IPP 52.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.03n/a0.03
PP iSH%–n/an/a
PP SOG/600.00n/a0.00
PP ixG/60–n/a0.00
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 0 · 9
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.030.06Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 0.000.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.000.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
0.0322-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/6011.13n/a8.25
Hits/6028.74n/a28.40
Blks/602.99n/a2.99
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 0 · 9
PIMs/60
3-yr 8.2536.45Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 28.4031.24Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 2.993.12Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
9.7222-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
29.5622-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
2.8322-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
10822-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
30922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
3422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindHits surging late: Q4 31.24/60 and 2nd-half 31.24 vs a 28.40 season rate (28.40 3-yr) (100th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 28.74/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.
ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.99/60 (62nd pct league-wide) → 2.99 projected.
TailwindFights / takes majors (0.93/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.