Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2674 GP	H242 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3207 GP · 3y
TOI	20.97	21.20	19.67	19.49	19.96
PP TOI	3.59	3.64	3.47	3.85	3.09
G	31	30	29	31	34
A	64	70	66	75	56
PTS	95	100	95	106	90
PPP	29	31	23	41	28
SOG	282	288	285	292	291
PIM	20	20	31	5	16
Hits	34	39	35	44	42
Blocks	58	44	37	54	65

Sample: 74 GP · 1,080 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

8Connor Bedard121

9Jack Eichel120

10Wyatt Johnston118

11Nick Suzuki114

12Aleksander Barkov113

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextKeep Vegas top-line values; modestly relax the mid-roster suppression from the Tortorella stint. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 47% below where it started (2.44 in the first half, 1.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 32% above last season, 44 to 58.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (3.64).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nico HischierC · New Jersey Devils83% match
shared: Blocks, G, PPP, SOG
Macklin CelebriniC · San Jose Sharks82% match
shared: SOG, A, PPP, Blocks
Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangers82% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devils81% match
shared: SOG, A, PPP, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jack Eichel is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.97	21.20	19.96	+6%
5v5 TOI	14.48	14.60	14.27	+2%
PP TOI	3.59	3.64	3.09	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 24 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.97: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.48: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.59: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.61	9.61	9.63	-0%
G/60	1.15	1.17	1.12	+5%
iSH%	11.96	12.17	11.60	+5%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.80	+6%
iCF/60	–	17.16	15.46	+11%
iSCF/60	–	8.00	8.04	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	2.94	3.36	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 24 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.80 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.72→0.95 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.31	11.70	10.30	+14%
IPP	71.34	71.12	71.92	-1%
1A/60	0.81	0.89	0.69	+29%
2A/60	0.63	0.56	0.63	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 24 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.7% vs a 10.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 17.16 vs 15.46) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.59	3.64	3.09	+18%
PP iSH%	6.60	1.90	10.01	-81%
PP SOG/60	12.63	11.60	16.91	-31%
PP ixG/60	–	1.59	1.52	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 24 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (1.9% vs 10.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.17	0.89	0.63	+42%
Hits/60	1.52	1.72	2.07	-17%
Blks/60	1.90	1.72	2.48	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 24 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.48/60 and 2nd-half 1.29 below the 1.72 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.52/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.07 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.43/60 and 2nd-half 1.36 below the 1.72 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.90/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.48 3-yr mark.