Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2626 GP	H217 GP	H19 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	7.88	7.95	7.79	7.17	–
PP TOI	0.01	0.00	–	0.02	–
G	3	3	0	0	–
A	12	13	10	14	–
PTS	15	16	10	14	–
PPP	0	0	–	0	–
SOG	33	35	29	-0	–
PIM	245	281	125	615	–
Hits	191	199	230	126	–
Blocks	34	35	34	41	–

Sample: 26 GP · 205 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

50Adam Klapka54

51Ryan Hartman54

52Porter Martone53

53Scott Sabourin53

54Patrik Laine51

55Will Smith49

56Nick Schmaltz49

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 230 pace in the second half after 126 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 125 pace in the second half after 615 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Bottom of the league

TOI

TOI sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (7.95).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammoth96% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightning95% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs95% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Panthers94% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Scott Sabourin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 4
fills: SOG, G, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	7.88	7.95	n/a
5v5 TOI	7.84	7.91	n/a
PP TOI	0.01	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 6 · 8 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 7.88: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 7.84: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 0.01: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	3.08	3.21	n/a
G/60	0.28	0.29	n/a
iSH%	9.03	9.03	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.68	n/a
iCF/60	–	9.92	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.55	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.50	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 6 · 8 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.54	9.54	n/a
IPP	62.39	62.39	n/a
1A/60	0.88	0.88	n/a
2A/60	0.29	0.29	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 6 · 8 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.5%, IPP 62.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.01	0.00	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 6 · 8 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	22.89	25.98	n/a
Hits/60	17.55	18.10	n/a
Blks/60	3.14	3.21	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 6 · 8 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 20.61/60 and 2nd-half 21.52 vs a 18.10 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (96th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 17.55/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.79/60 and 2nd-half 3.60 below the 3.21 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.14/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (1.46/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.