Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2669 GP	H238 GP	H131 GP	Prev 3150 GP · 2y
TOI	21.27	20.88	19.33	19.71	20.06
PP TOI	3.79	3.49	3.76	3.17	2.96
G	▲35	36	24	49	25
A	▲55	53	44	64	45
PTS	▲90	89	69	114	70
PPP	27	25	17	34	27
SOG	260	269	261	278	219
PIM	58	59	43	79	54
Hits	48	37	48	24	55
Blocks	34	32	27	38	35

Sample: 69 GP · 1,101 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

5Auston Matthews151

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

8Connor Bedard121

9Jack Eichel120

10Wyatt Johnston118

11Nick Suzuki114

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Not a bet on new info - a correction to the model's regression. The engine hedges his breakout EV rate toward two lower rookie years, projecting him below his own 82-game pace despite MORE minutes. Goals HELD at 1.10: 35 G on 260 SOG is already 13.5%, his exact career-high finishing rate, against an ixG-implied ~11.3% - lifting there would chase a hot number. Assists lifted to 1.13 (they held up in H2 when the goals cooled). Lands ~89, at his own 2025-26 pace. NOTE ON AVAILABILITY: this is a per-82 line and he is expected to miss roughly the first month after July shoulder surgery - outside reads bake in 64-67 GP. Draft the rate, discount the games.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSupport Bedard/Nazar baselines; discount speculative Chicago streamers. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 17 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 24 pace in the second half after 49 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 30% above last season, 37 to 48.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 37% above his 3-year rate last season (1.14 against 0.83).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dylan LarkinC · Detroit Red Wings90% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightning87% match
shared: A, SOG, PPP, G
Mikko RantanenRW · Dallas Stars87% match
shared: A, PPP, G, SOG
Sidney CrosbyC · Pittsburgh Penguins86% match
shared: A, SOG, PPP, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Connor Bedard is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 1
fills: Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 1
fills: Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 1
fills: Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 1
fills: Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year: Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.27	20.88	20.06	+4%
5v5 TOI	16.09	15.96	15.92	+0%
PP TOI	3.79	3.49	2.96	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 19 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.27: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 16.09: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.79: same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.8, Q4 3.6) over the full-year 3.5; age 21 riser — small growth bias; Boost Byram G/PPP to a PP1-quarterback line in Chicago.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.25	8.01	6.91	+16%
G/60	0.90	0.93	0.68	+37%
iSH%	10.93	11.61	9.81	+18%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.74	+15%
iCF/60	–	15.15	13.62	+11%
iSCF/60	–	7.90	7.32	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	2.78	2.19	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 19 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost Byram G/PPP to a PP1-quarterback line in Chicago. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskApply an early-season GP haircut to Bedard and soften Byram's early totals. · Fantasy hockey forward analysis

TailwindProject Lardis for a full 2026-27 CHI role with goal/SOG upside that rises if he lands top-six/top-line minutes with Bedard or Frondell.

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.74 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 16% (5v5 SOG/60 8.01 vs 6.91) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.66	11.05	8.91	+24%
IPP	83.91	84.78	78.34	+8%
1A/60	1.03	1.14	0.83	+37%
2A/60	0.26	0.38	0.23	+68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 19 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.0% vs a 8.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.15 vs 13.62) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.78 vs 2.19) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.79	3.49	2.96	+18%
PP iSH%	14.31	12.94	15.31	-15%
PP SOG/60	13.12	13.45	13.25	+2%
PP ixG/60	–	1.55	1.58	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 19 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost Byram G/PPP to a PP1-quarterback line in Chicago. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.5→3.8 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.8, Q4 3.6) over the full-year 3.5; age 21 riser — small growth bias; Boost Byram G/PPP to a PP1-quarterback line in Chicago.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.20	2.29	2.32	-1%
Hits/60	2.09	1.63	2.51	-35%
Blks/60	1.37	1.31	1.56	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 19 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.18/60 and 2nd-half 2.13 vs a 1.63 season rate (2.51 3-yr) (18th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.09/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.39/60 and 2nd-half 1.01 below the 1.31 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.37/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.56 3-yr mark.