Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2660 GP	H225 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3222 GP · 3y
TOI	20.76	20.80	19.52	19.26	20.59
PP TOI	2.84	2.77	2.55	2.91	3.36
G	46	37	25	44	52
A	44	36	37	36	47
PTS	90	73	62	81	100
PPP	23	16	14	16	30
SOG	330	310	281	336	354
PIM	23	25	22	28	22
Hits	70	57	65	49	78
Blocks	101	111	87	131	99

Sample: 60 GP · 918 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

2Nathan MacKinnon210

3Leon Draisaitl176

4Macklin Celebrini160

5Auston Matthews151

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

8Connor Bedard121

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindAdd a playmaker tailwind to Toronto's top-six scoring environment. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextSet McKenna near 63; the Toronto rebound depends on possession improving alongside Matthews's finishing regression. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindProject a strong-but-tempered ~60-point rookie line, not an elite ceiling, in year one. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Victor Nuno)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 44% above last season, 16 to 23.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 44 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 43% below where it started (5.25 in the first half, 2.97 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 34% below his 3-year rate last season (0.59 against 0.90).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Sam ReinhartRW · Florida Panthers87% match
shared: G, Blocks, SOG, PPP
Bryan RustRW · Pittsburgh Penguins86% match
shared: Blocks, G, SOG, PPP
Nico HischierC · New Jersey Devils85% match
shared: G, Blocks, PPP, SOG
Matt BoldyLW,RW · Minnesota Wild83% match
shared: SOG, G, Blocks, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Auston Matthews is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.76	20.80	20.59	+1%
5v5 TOI	15.39	15.30	15.05	+2%
PP TOI	2.84	2.77	3.36	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 23 · 2

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.76: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.39: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.84: role tapered late (Q4 2.6 vs 2.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	10.29	10.39	11.50	-10%
G/60	1.20	1.11	1.42	-22%
iSH%	11.64	10.68	12.34	-13%
ixG/60	–	1.24	1.28	-3%
iCF/60	–	17.91	21.16	-15%
iSCF/60	–	13.00	14.06	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	6.01	6.32	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 23 · 2

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive finishing regression: hold goal generation and expect goals to rebound. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindLean toward a bounce-back goal line vs his down year; buy-low signal. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 10.7% sits near the 12.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 1.24 (100th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.93	10.54	11.42	-8%
IPP	69.46	66.67	72.87	-9%
1A/60	0.71	0.59	0.90	-34%
2A/60	0.40	0.26	0.40	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 23 · 2

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 66.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.84	2.77	3.36	-18%
PP iSH%	17.23	12.52	18.56	-33%
PP SOG/60	15.13	14.46	17.79	-19%
PP ixG/60	–	1.86	2.66	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 23 · 2

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSupport PP1 usage for Toronto's top skill; deployment not hierarchy-bound. · Coaching landscape report

RiskAdd a coaching-risk discount to the Matthews rebound case. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~2.8 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.86	0.91	0.79	+15%
Hits/60	2.85	2.42	3.49	-31%
Blks/60	3.74	4.18	3.99	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 23 · 2

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.42/60 (30th pct league-wide) → 2.85 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.97/60 and 2nd-half 2.97 below the 4.18 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.74/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.99 3-yr mark.